[2008-2023年北京手足口病的时间分布特征]。

Y Q Zhang, W Wang, X T Li, S C Du, C X Xu, H Qiao, X G Sun
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From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration (<i>M</i>) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle (<i>α</i>) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation (<i>s</i>) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the <i>M</i> was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The <i>α</i> was 228.05°, and <i>s</i> was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the <i>M</i> was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the <i>α</i> was 238.27° and <i>s</i> was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的分析北京市手足口病的时间分布特征,为手足口病防控提供参考依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统应报疾病管理信息系统中收集2008-2023年北京市手足口病月度发病数据,采用时间序列季节分解图、浓度度、环状分布等方法分析手足口病流行特征,采用WPS office软件2019对数据进行清洗,采用Python软件3.12进行分析并制作统计图表。结果2008~2015年北京市手足口病月发病率波动高于2016~2022年。2016年至2022年,月发病率波动范围呈逐渐减小趋势。2008年至2015年,浓度(M)为0.58,表明季节性较强;圆周分布法计算的平均角度(α)为174.95°,平均角度标准差(s)为60.43°。年入射高峰出现在 6 月 27 日,入射高峰期为 4 月 27 日至 8 月 27 日。从 2016 年到 2019 年和 2023 年,M 为 0.57,表明季节性相对较强。α为 228.05°,s 为 61.44°。全年发病高峰出现在 8 月 20 日,发病高峰期为 6 月 18 日至 10 月 21 日。2020 年至 2022 年,M 值为 0.42,显示出季节性,α 为 238.27°,s 为 76.35°。全年发病高峰出现在 7 月 15 日,发病高峰期为 6 月 14 日至 11 月 14 日。用 Watson-Williams 方法检验了 2008-2015、2016-2019 和 2023、2020-2022 年的α,差异有统计学意义(F=33 443.09,PM 为 0.77,表明季节性很强。发病高峰出现在 9 月 16 日,发病高峰期为 8 月 5 日至 10 月 28 日。结论2008-2023年北京市手足口病季节性明显,发病高峰日和高峰期总体呈后移趋势。有必要加强对不同维度分布特征的综合分析,加强对发病高峰期重点地区、重点场所、重点人群的综合防控。
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[Temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing, 2008-2023].

Objective: To analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing and provide reference evidence in HFMD prevention and control. Methods: The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2023 were collected from Notifiable Disease Management Information System of the Chinese Information System of Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were analyzed by the methods of time series seasonal decomposition graph, concentration degree, and circular distribution.The WPS office software 2019 was used to clean the data, Python software 3.12 was used to analyze and make statistical charts. Results: The monthly incidence fluctuation of HFMD in Beijing from 2008 to 2015 was higher than that from 2016 to 2022. From 2016 to 2022, the fluctuation range of monthly incidence showed a gradually decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2015, the concentration (M) was 0.58, indicating a relatively strong seasonality; the mean angle (α) calculated by the circular distribution method was 174.95°, and the mean angle standard deviation (s) was 60.43°. The annual incidence peak occurred on June 27, and the incidence peak period was from April 27 to August 27. From 2016 to 2019 and 2023, the M was 0.57, indicating a relatively strong seasonality. The α was 228.05°, and s was 61.44°. The annual incidence peak occurred on August 20, and the incidence peak period was from June 18 to October 21. From 2020 to 2022, the M was 0.42, indicating a seasonality, the α was 238.27° and s was 76.35°. The annual incidence peak occurred on July 15, and the incidence peak period was from June 14 to November 14. The α of 2008-2015, 2016-2019 and 2023, and 2020-2022 were tested by the Watson-Williams method and the difference was statistically significant (F=33 443.09, P<0.001). In 2023, the M was 0.77, indicating a strong seasonality. The incidence peak occurred on September 16, and the incidence peak period was from August 5 to October 28. Conclusions: The seasonality of HFMD in Beijing was obvious from 2008 to 2023, and the incidence peak day and peak period overall had rearward shifts. It is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive analysis of the distribution characteristics at different dimensions and the comprehensive prevention and control in key areas, places, and populations during the peak incidence period.

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来源期刊
中华流行病学杂志
中华流行病学杂志 Medicine-Medicine (all)
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
8981
期刊介绍: Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, established in 1981, is an advanced academic periodical in epidemiology and related disciplines in China, which, according to the principle of integrating theory with practice, mainly reports the major progress in epidemiological research. The columns of the journal include commentary, expert forum, original article, field investigation, disease surveillance, laboratory research, clinical epidemiology, basic theory or method and review, etc.  The journal is included by more than ten major biomedical databases and index systems worldwide, such as been indexed in Scopus, PubMed/MEDLINE, PubMed Central (PMC), Europe PubMed Central, Embase, Chemical Abstract, Chinese Science and Technology Paper and Citation Database (CSTPCD), Chinese core journal essentials overview, Chinese Science Citation Database (CSCD) core database, Chinese Biological Medical Disc (CBMdisc), and Chinese Medical Citation Index (CMCI), etc. It is one of the core academic journals and carefully selected core journals in preventive and basic medicine in China.
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