发展中国家的一党制、拉拢和战略性社会支出

Li Zheng
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摘要

政权类型如何影响发展中国家的社会支出?本文提供了一种新颖的政治经济学方法,认为一党制政权比其他类型的专制国家更有可能在养老金方面投入资金,以拉拢大量关键成员,尽管政权类型并不影响各专制国家的一般福利支出。该理论强调了不同专制国家的制度和权力结构异质性在塑造统治精英的激励机制和策略方面的影响,以及对不同专制政权执政联盟的要求做出的回应。通过使用滞后因变量的面板普通最小二乘法(OLS)回归和几种实证策略,该研究利用 1990 年至 2012 年的新数据集找到了支持这一论点的证据。该研究为专制体制(尤其是政党)如何利用战略性社会政策来解决精英阶层独裁者为政权生存所面临的困境提供了新的见解,而其他专制类型的体制则不存在这种情况。
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Single-party regime, cooptation, and strategic social spending in developing countries

How regime types affect the provision of social spending in the context of developing countries? This article provides a novel political-economic approach, arguing that single-party regimes are more likely to spend on pensions than other types of autocratic states to co-opt the large number of critical members although the regime type does not affect the general welfare spending across autocratic states. The theory emphasizes the effect of institutional and power structure heterogeneity across autocracies in shaping the incentives and strategies that the ruling elites co-opt and respond to the demands of the ruling coalition across different autocratic regimes. Using panel, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with lagged dependent variable along with several empirical strategies, it finds the evidence supporting this argument with a new dataset from 1990 to 2012. The study provides new insights on how autocratic institutions especially the party utilize strategic social policies to resolve the elite-level dictator dilemma for regime survival that are absent in other autocratic types.

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