{"title":"大气中非二氧化碳温室气体含量的减少可解释 1998-2012 年变暖减缓的四分之一原因","authors":"Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown\",\"authors\":\"Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.\",\"PeriodicalId\":10530,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Communications Earth & Environment\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Communications Earth & Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Communications Earth & Environment","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.
期刊介绍:
Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science.
Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.