评估和选择地震脆性曲线的方法:通过专家调查和模糊分析进行校准

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930
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引用次数: 0

摘要

脆性曲线(FC)是一种扩展的决策工具,用于估算暴露在地震灾害中的系统的结构性能。然而,在地震风险评估中,选择不合适的易损性曲线会严重影响损失和破坏计算的准确性。本文对 "Select.FC "方法进行了改进,该方法是最近提出的一种新方法,可以选择可靠性更高的易损性曲线。该方法采用了一个多维指数,其中包含一系列有关功能区各个方面的综合变量。在对全球专家进行调查的基础上,对这一多维指数的变量得分进行了校准和验证。模糊分析层次过程(FAHP)方法的实施进一步提高了根据专家答复计算出的分数的客观性和可靠性。专家调查和 FAHP 得出的结果显示,校准后分配给特定变量的新分数与原始方法中提出的分数之间存在一些差异。然而,从总体上看,这些差异消失了。因此,"Select.FC "方法及其根据最终多维指数得分将功能区分为六类的建议,在某些变量的权重发生重大变化时显得相当稳健。
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A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Calibration from expert survey and fuzzy analysis
Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.
This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.
The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.
The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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