Optimizing peak shaving operation in hydro-dominated hybrid power systems with limited distributional information on renewable energy uncertainty

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in power systems poses challenges for peak shaving operations due to RES uncertainty. However, it is difficult to obtain complete distributional information for uncertainty modeling. This study focuses on optimizing peak shaving in hydro-dominated hybrid power systems under such uncertainty. We utilize limited distributional information of RES forecast errors, specifically the first two moments, to build a moment ambiguity set. Employing distributionally robust chance-constrained programming (DRCCP), we develop a peak shaving model that quantifies the flexibility reserve of hydropower by risk level and the forecast errors. To enhance computational tractability, we apply the Chebyshev inequality to reformulate the moment-based DRCCP model into a mixed-integer linear programming model. Numerical simulations conducted on a provincial power grid in China validate the model's effectiveness. Key findings indicate that: (1) The model effectively leverages hydropower to provide ramping flexibility for peak shaving and quantifies the flexibility reserve needed for RES forecast errors. (2) This uncertainty modeling approach is more practical than probability distribution function-based methods, ensuring reliable peak shaving scheduling and reducing conservatism. (3) Decision-makers can adjust risk level to modify hydropower flexibility reserve, balancing robustness and conservatism of peak shaving scheduling.