Characterizing the impact of emergent technologies on earth communications reliance for crewed deep space missions

Future human expeditions into deep space will encounter unique design challenges posed by the increasing distance from Earth, one of which is the inability to maintain near-continuous communication with ground support teams. As a result, the habitat and crew will require a higher level of operational self-sufficiency informed by onboard self-awareness and decision-making capabilities to accomplish functions that have historically involved extensive support from mission control personnel. These include, for example, task planning and anomaly detection, diagnosis and correction, as well as monitoring of consumable usage rates and system performance. Novel emergent technologies in the domain of ‘smart’ systems and digital twins can be employed to enable the onboard capabilities needed to function with minimal Earth communication. However, these technologies are generally low-TRL and difficult to incorporate through traditional systems engineering methods.

This work proposes an extension of utility theory to assess the potential reduction in Earth communication reliance between baseline and emergent technologies, scored through a summation of weighted attributes and evaluated against future deep space mission needs and constraints. Case studies are defined from technology under development in the NASA Habitats Optimized for Missions of Exploration (HOME) Space Technology Research Institute (STRI), a project charged with developing and evaluating technologies to enable highly autonomous deep space habitats, and compared to the current baseline technologies used onboard the International Space Station. Notional deep space mission needs and constraints are informed from current NASA plans for the Moon and Mars. These in turn are broken out into higher resolution attributes that are used to assess the operational capabilities of each emergent technology and whether it offers a potentially viable solution for deep space. These technology attributes are scored through a series of semi-structured subject-matter interviews and compared to notional deep space mission constraints. Additional considerations for technology maturation and integration are also discussed. The design analysis paradigm described and demonstrated here can be adapted to assess the degree to which other emergent technologies rely on Earth-based communication, and is intended to provide trade space considerations for future research and development towards deep space habitat self-sufficiency.