Impact of future climate scenarios on thermal performance and resilience of building façades: Canadian climate case study

Buildings in urban areas are responsible for a significant share of GHG emissions that directly contribute to climate change. Nevertheless, the built environment is vulnerable to the changing climate. Particularly, the unpredictable weather threatens the performance of building components, durability of building materials, and indoor environmental comfort. In this study, the impact of future climate on thermal performance of building façades in the Canadian climate is investigated using simulation analysis. To account for different climate conditions, three future weather scenarios pertaining to global temperature rise of 0.5 °C, 1.5 °C, and 2.5 °C were compared with historical weather data. Both hourly and Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data were studied. The results, including thermal transmittance, heat flux, moisture content, and façade temperature were compared. This comparison could show the applicability of using averaged TMY data compared to the large hourly dataset. The results show a pattern of change in the façade's thermal and hygrothermal performance as temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation norms change in both seasons. The comparison between the TMY and the Yearly data showed an underestimation of heat transfer within the façade when the TMY data is used. The historical TMY data results showed the inadequacy of this weather file for climate impact assessments of facades in both summer and winter. The approach used in this study can be repeated for different climate conditions, acting as a tool to design façades and predict their performance in face of a changing climate.