Integration Failure or Integration risk? Revisiting the Modality of Return Migration in China

Return migration, specifically the return of rural migrants from large cities to their hometowns, has emerged as a notable phenomenon in China in the early 21st century. Existing studies primarily attribute this trend to integration failure, citing factors such as hukou policies, an unequal welfare system and unaffordable housing costs. In contrast to these institutional factors, few studies have examined migrants’ psychological integration, including dimensions such as perceived social integration (PSI) and willingness for social integration (WSI), in relation to their return decisions. To address this gap, this study utilizes data obtained from a questionnaire survey of 712 migrants in Wuhan conducted in 2018, investigating the interactions between PSI, WSI and migrants’ return decisions, as well as the impacts of these perceptions across different migrant groups. Our findings reveal that migrants perceive an ‘integration risk’ when their WSI exceeds their PSI, and this perceived integration risk (PIR) is positively correlated with their return decisions. Additionally, we find that variables such as health status, migration duration, income, neighborhood composition and participation in local activities influence migrants’ return decisions through the mediation of PIR. We argue that strengthening specific, targeted integration policies related to migrants’ PIR will facilitate their settlement in host cities.