The Recent Rise in Homicide: An Analysis of Weekly Mortality Data, United States, 2018-2022.

Background: From 2019 to 2020, homicide showed its largest single-year increase in modern US history. While many have cited the COVID-19 pandemic or the police killing of George Floyd as initiating the rise, there has been limited systematic investigation of how the timing of the increase corresponded with these key events. We investigated trends in firearm and nonfirearm homicide across sociodemographic and geographic groups to clarify the timing and nature of the recent increase.

Methods: We conducted a descriptive epidemiologic study using the National Vital Statistics System weekly mortality data from January 2018 to December 2022 in the United States. We seasonally adjusted and smoothed weekly firearm and nonfirearm homicide data, quantifying changes in relation to key event dates for the COVID-19 pandemic, the killing of George Floyd, and the 2020 national election. We disaggregated trends by sociodemographic and geographic characteristics.

Results: Between January 2018 and December 2022, firearm homicide increased by 54% while nonfirearm homicide was stable. The increase in firearm homicide started in October 2019 and stabilized by November 2020; 28% of the eventual increase had already occurred by the time COVID-19 was declared a national emergency. All sociodemographic and geographic groups experienced large recent increases in firearm homicide.

Conclusions: The magnitude and timing of the recent increase in homicide have been previously understated and obscured by crude data and seasonal patterns. Existing theories, including the COVID-19 pandemic, fall short in explaining the historic surge, which is specific to firearm homicide, started in late 2019, and affected all persons and places across the United States.