Dynamics of organized violence in the wake of tropical cyclones

Recent research highlights how the same vulnerabilities that lead to disasters also condition the impact of hazards on violent conflict. Yet it is common practice in the literature to proxy rapid-onset hazards with disaster impacts when studying political violence. This can bias upward estimates of hazard–conflict relationships and obscure heterogeneous effects, with implications for forecasting as well as disaster risk reduction and peace-building activities. To overcome this, we implement an approach that measures and models the separate components of a tropical cyclone event: the hazard, the exposure, and the impacts. We then estimate a set of models that quantify how the incidence and intensity of organized violence respond to hazard exposure. We find little evidence that the average tropical cyclone enhances or diminishes violent conflict at the country level over a two-year time horizon. Yet rather than signaling that storms do not matter for political violence, unpacking this average result reveals two countervailing effects within countries. Conflict, and especially one-sided violence against civilians, tends to escalate in regions directly exposed to the tropical cyclone. In contrast, areas outside the path of the storm may experience a decrease in conflict. These results are heterogeneous with tropical cyclone intensity, and conflict escalation is more likely to occur in settings with less effective governments. Our results underscore the importance of ex-ante efforts targeting government capacity and effective disaster risk reduction to moderate the risk of violent conflict in the wake of tropical cyclones.