Associations between rural hospital closures and acute and post-acute care access and outcomes.

Objective: To determine whether rural hospital closures affected hospital and post-acute care (PAC) use and outcomes.

Study setting and design: Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we evaluated associations between 32 rural hospital closures and changes in county-level: (1) travel distances to and lengths of stay at hospitals; (2) functional limitations at and time from hospital discharge to start of PAC episode; (3) 30-day readmissions and mortality and hospitalizations for a fall-related injury; and (4) population-level hospitalization and death rates.

Data sources and analytic sample: 100% Medicare claims and home health and skilled nursing facility clinical data to identify approximately 3 million discharges for older fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries.

Principal findings: We found that hospitals that closed compared to those remaining open served more minoritized, lower-income populations, including more Medicaid and fewer commercial patients, and had lower profit margins. Following a closure, quarterly hospitalization rates (111.6 quarterly hospitalizations per 10,000 older adults; 95% CI: 53.4, 170.9) and average hospital lengths of stay increased (0.34 days; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.56 days). We observed no change in the average distance between patients' residential ZIP code and the hospital used (0.29 miles; 95% CI: -1.06, 1.64 miles); average number of standardized ADL limitations at PAC (0.08 SDs from the pre-closure average; 95% CI: -0.12, 0.28 SDs); or PAC time to start (0.02 days; 95% CI: -1.2, 1.2 days). Among more isolated hospitals, closures were associated with an increase in the likelihood of readmission (0.10 percentage-points; 95% CI: 0.00, 0.19).

Conclusions: Closures were not associated with notably worsened health care access, function, or health, potentially because closures triggered care delivery adjustments involving increased numbers of patients seeking out higher quality care.