Cross-validation of the safe supplement screener (S3) predicting consistent third-party-tested nutritional supplement use in NCAA Division I athletes.

Introduction: This cross-sectional study aimed to cross-validate an earlier developed algorithm-based screener and explore additional potential predictors for whether athletes will use third-party-tested (TPT) supplements.

Methods: To justify the initial model behind the supplement safety screener (S3) algorithm which predicts whether athletes will use TPT supplements, a cross-validation was performed using this independent dataset based on responses of a large group of collegiate NCAA DI athletes. Additionally, explorative modeling using stepwise logistic regression was used to identify new predictors for TPT supplement use to create and evaluate a new model for future use.

Results: The S3 algorithm was applied to the responses from n = 662 athletes using supplements (age: 20 ± 1.5 years, 50% female, from >24 sports) confirming that the algorithm identifies consistent and inconsistent TPT users (χ² (1) = 15.95, p < 0.001), with a moderate area under the curve (AUC, 0.67) and a moderate specificity (68%), but low sensitivity (51%). Explorative modeling identified two new variables: TPT logo recognition, and having at least one name, image, likeness (NIL) deal that may help to predict TPT supplement use.

Discussion: Strong relationships between risk groupings and product use outcomes toward TPT supplement use were identified for the athletes screened. The S3 screener showed high sensitivity for identifying student-athletes inconsistently using TPT supplements, but a low specificity, lacking the ability to place less risky athletes into low-risk quadrants. The exploratory modeling, identifying TPT logo recognition and having a NIL deal, further strengthens our knowledge on predictors for consistent TPT supplement use.