[Predictors of the course of schizophrenic diseases under neuroleptic long-term medication (author's transl)].

70 schizophrenic outpatients have been treated continuously after index hospital discharge with neuroleptic drugs for an average of 14.3 years. In predicting their outcome in several dimensions (rehospitalization rate, symptoms, social and work adjustment, self ratings) differential predictor patterns could be confirmed, at most accounting for 65% of the outcome variance. In part work adjustment at follow-up cold be predicted by premorbid social and sexual adjustment as well as by working capability at index discharge. The most powerful predictor for the number of social relations was the former frequency of social contacts. Rehospitalization was related to higher neuroleptic equivalence dose at index discharge among other predictors, whereas presence of symptoms could be predicted e.g. by formerly longer hospital stays. Although at the beginning of the treatment our sample was classified as "process schizophrenic" on "classic" prognostic scales, 40-60% of our cases had a relative good outcome. This results and the considerable decrease of the rehospitalization rate from 0.57 before treatment to 0.11 during treatment stand for a clear treatment related improvement of the spontaneous prognosis. The partly mutually independence of the outcome criteria and predictor patterns underlines the importance of multiaxial diagnosis.