Could middle- and long-distance running performance of well-trained athletes be best predicted by the same aerobic parameters?

The prediction of running performance at different competitive distances is a challenge, since it can be influenced by several physiological, morphological and biomechanical factors. In experienced male runners heterogeneous for maximal oxygen uptake (VO₂max), endurance running performance can be well predicted by several key parameters of aerobic fitness such as VO₂max and its respective velocity (vVO₂max), running economy, blood lactate response to exercise, oxygen uptake kinetics and critical velocity. However, for a homogeneous group of well-trained endurance runners, the relationship between aerobic fitness parameters and endurance running performance seems to be influenced by the duration of the race (i.e., middle vs. long). Although middle-distance and ultramarathon runners present high aerobic fitness levels, there is no accumulating evidence showing that the aerobic key parameters influence both 800-m and ultramarathon performance in homogeneous group of well-trained runners. The vVO₂max seems to be the best predictor of performance for 1500 m. For 3000 m, both vVO₂max and blood lactate response to exercise are the main predictors of performance. Finally, for long distance events (5000 m, 10,000 m, marathon and ultramarathon), blood lactate response seems to be main predictor of performance. The different limiting/determinants factors and/or training-induced changes in aerobic parameters can help to explain this time- or distance-dependent pattern.