广义层次正态线性模型目标先验的后验性

IF 0.7 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Statistical Theory and Related Fields Pub Date : 2022-07-30 DOI:10.1080/24754269.2021.1978206
Cong Lin, Dongchu Sun, Chengyuan Song
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要贝叶斯层次模型在现代统计学应用中得到了广泛的应用。为了处理具有复杂结构的数据,我们提出了一个广义层次正态线性(GHNL)模型,该模型可以容纳任意多个级别、常用的设计矩阵和“香草”协方差矩阵。GHNL模型可以使用目标超优先权来表达无知或匹配频率主义特性,但在分层建模中,常见的目标贝叶斯方法是不可行的或充满危险的。为了解决这个问题,[Berger,J.,Sun,D.,&Song,C.(2020b)。正态层次模型中超参数的客观先验。多变量分析杂志,178104606。https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2020.104606]提出了一种特殊的目标先验,并对其性质进行了全面的研究。后验适当性对于先验的选择是重要的,以保证MCMC采样器的收敛性。James Berger推测所得后验对于具有任意多个层次的层次正态模型是合适的,但没有给出严格的证明。在本文中,我们完成了这个故事,并提供了一个用户友好的指导。本文的一个主要贡献是提出了一种新的技术来推导积分似然的精细上界,同时也是一种检查线性模型后验性的统一方法。还介绍了一种有效的吉布斯采样方法,该方法大大优于其他采样方法。
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Posterior propriety of an objective prior for generalized hierarchical normal linear models
ABSTRACT Bayesian Hierarchical models has been widely used in modern statistical application. To deal with the data having complex structures, we propose a generalized hierarchical normal linear (GHNL) model which accommodates arbitrarily many levels, usual design matrices and ‘vanilla’ covariance matrices. Objective hyperpriors can be employed for the GHNL model to express ignorance or match frequentist properties, yet the common objective Bayesian approaches are infeasible or fraught with danger in hierarchical modelling. To tackle this issue, [Berger, J., Sun, D., & Song, C. (2020b). An objective prior for hyperparameters in normal hierarchical models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 178, 104606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2020.104606] proposed a particular objective prior and investigated its properties comprehensively. Posterior propriety is important for the choice of priors to guarantee the convergence of MCMC samplers. James Berger conjectured that the resulting posterior is proper for a hierarchical normal model with arbitrarily many levels, a rigorous proof of which was not given, however. In this paper, we complete this story and provide an user-friendly guidance. One main contribution of this paper is to propose a new technique for deriving an elaborate upper bound on the integrated likelihood, but also one unified approach to checking the posterior propriety for linear models. An efficient Gibbs sampling method is also introduced and outperforms other sampling approaches considerably.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
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