Assessment of an Occupational Disease of the Employees Using a Set of Possible Symptoms and a Line of Outcomes «Injury — Mutilation — Lethal Outcome» Using the Example of Vibration Impact

Within the framework of the «factors — protection — employee» system, using the example of the action of vibration, the following line of possible outcomes «injury — mutilation — lethal outcome «was considered and tested according to the degree of hazard. As susceptibility parameters, the values taken on the basis of the amplitude-frequency characteristic of the vibration impact are proposed, which, with a known level of confidence, determine the possibility of the occurrence of outcomes in the declared line. One or more values of the frequency and amplitude of oscillations are taken as parameters of influence in a particular system. Based on the introduced parametric model and the initial data, a set of probabilities of outcomes of the declared line was calculated, with the help of which the risk of employee diseases can be predicted in a particular system or production environment. In addition, it is shown that in the resulting assessment of the probable lethal outcome, both injury and mutilation to the employee are also considered. An analysis of the effect of vibration was conducted and an assessment of its hazard was made using the probabilities of one of the adverse outcomes. It is shown that for the given impact parameters: an injury will occur with a probability of 0.7611; the onset of an occupational disease is possible with a probability of 0.8023; the lethal outcome will occur with a probability of 0.8339. Also, the logical models of the event of possible outcomes were built, considering the complex of symptoms and the line of outcomes. With a probability of 9922 %, an accident will occur, which includes three outcomes — injury (deterioration in condition), disease (disability) and lethal outcome. With a probability of 93.53 %, an occupational disease will occur, including an injury. With a probability of 50.92 % in this particular case, the lethal outcome will occur, respectively, mutilation and injury. Thus, the dependence is shown related to the frequency and amplitude of oscillations with the level of industrial injuries, the probability of mutilation or lethal outcome.