二十国集团制度动力简史(2008-2021)

M. Larionova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

20国集团(G20)汇集了主要发达国家和新兴市场国家的领导人,以应对2007-2008年的金融和经济危机,改革国际架构,制定新的全球共识,确保复苏,并促进强劲、可持续和平衡的增长。二十国集团作为一个反危机机制成立,并被其成员指定为国际经济合作的首要论坛,转变为全球治理中心。自首次峰会以来,二十国集团产生了很高的期望,并已成为分析人士、大众媒体和公众研究和评估的主题。每一次峰会的审议、决定和参与都经过了仔细审查。20国集团的批评者声称,20国集团已经失去了相关性,无法应对多边主义的退化,也无法应对新冠肺炎疫情及其引发的危机。本文运用历史制度主义的逻辑,探讨二十国集团演进的动力汇合:对二十国集团领导地位的需求;议程扩大和制度化;以及合法化、问责制和参与。结论是,二十国集团改变了全球治理趋势,创造了一种更具包容性的全球治理,将二十国集团自身广泛多样的合作网络与参与二十国集团政策进程的其他国际机构和参与团体的网络相结合。网络化治理,加上轮值主席国、三驾马车和各种外联机制,增强了二十国集团的权威,减少了人们对合法性差距的看法。早期决策、既定和扩大的议程、参与模式、认知脚本、嵌入的想法和内化的规范带来的好处成为稳定的强大内生来源,并在积极的反馈循环中得到加强。尽管成员国之间存在紧张关系,但二十国集团提供的价值及其产生的全球公共产品、实际和预期回报,构成了二十国集团继续参与、维持其不断发展的动力并巩固其路径依赖性的重要激励因素。二十国集团韧性的不利之处在于,它无法在新冠肺炎之后采取创新举措,也无法为世界提供克服疫情和相关经济和社会危机所需的强有力领导。尽管有这些失败,二十国集团仍然是当代全球经济治理的关键枢纽。然而,锁定可能会带来与其他机构失去相关性的风险。
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A Brief History of the G20 Institutional Dynamics (2008-2021)
The Group of 20 (G20) brought together leaders of the key advanced and emerging market countries to manage the 2007–08 financial and economic crises, reform the international architecture, devise a new global consensus, ensure recovery, and promote strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. Established as an anti-crisis mechanism and designated by its members as a premier forum for international economic cooperation, the G20 transformed into a global governance hub. Since its first summit, the G20 has generated high expectations and has become a subject of research and assessment for analysts, mass media, and the general public. Each summit’s deliberations, decisions, and engagements have been scrutinized. Critics of the G20 claim it has lost relevance and was not capable of responding to the degradation of multilateralism, or the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis it induced. In this article, the logic of historical institutionalism is applied to explore the confluence of dynamics in the G20’s evolution: demand for G20 leadership; agenda expansion and institutionalization; and legitimation, accountability, and engagements. It is concluded that the G20 changed global governance trends, creating a more inclusive global governance that integrates the G20’s own extensive and diverse cooperation networks with the networks of the other international institutions and engagement groups involved in G20 policy processes. The networked governance, alongside the rotating presidency, the Troika, and various outreach mechanisms, augment the G20’s authority and reduce the legitimacy gap perception. The benefits from the early decisions, established and expanding agenda, patterns of engagement, cognitive scripts, embedded ideas, and internalized norms became strong endogenous sources of stability, reinforced in positive feedback loops. Despite tensions between members, the value that the G20 provides and the global public goods it generates, real and expected returns, constitute significant incentives for the G20’s continued engagement, sustain its evolving dynamics, and consolidate its path-dependency. The downside of the G20’s resilience is its inability to undertake innovative initiatives in the wake of COVID-19 or to provide the powerful leadership the world needed to overcome the pandemic and the related economic and social crises. Notwithstanding these failures, the G20 remains the crucial hub of contemporary global economic governance. However, the lock-in may entail the risk of losing relevance to other institutions.
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期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
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