俄罗斯欧洲部分伏尔加中部地区晚全新世末和人类世的气温变化

IF 2.3 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Quaternary Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.3390/quat6030048
Y. Perevedentsev, K. Shantalinsky, A. Gusarov, N. Mirsaeva, T. Aukhadeev, Alexander A. Nikolaev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在地球北半球长期气候波动的背景下,根据东欧平原东部最古老的气象站(喀山大学)和俄罗斯整个亚洲地区的仪器观测,考虑了1828年至2021年伏尔加中部地区气温的时间变化。气温普遍呈上升趋势。结果表明,喀山地区的气候变化与伏尔加中部地区的气候过程是一致的。整个观测期的最大变暖发生在一年中的冬季和春季。12月,气候变暖的最大速度为0.28°C/10年。与此同时,1991年至2021年出现了最强烈的变暖过程。通过分析月平均气温系列中的低频波动,可以确定不同的变化时期,包括类型(方向)和强度。结果表明,近几十年来,伏尔加中部地区气温正异常的发生率高于负异常。从第一个时期,即1841年至1870年,也对30年的时期进行了统计数据处理。这使得揭示空气温度的长期变化成为可能。对1828-1945年和1946-2021年这两个时期的气候参数进行比较,使我们能够可靠地探测到越来越可识别的人类世时代(自1946年以来)的气候开始,其特征是气温急剧上升,气温状况的年际变化增加,以及伏尔加中部地区的升温速度显著增加(大约三倍)。对喀山不同时期的大气环流指数和气温波动进行了相关分析。1990年至2020年期间发现了最密切的关系。结果表明,人类世期间,全球因素对伏尔加中部地区气温变化的贡献率在冬季达到37%,在夏季达到32%;按年度计算,这一贡献达54%。
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Air Temperature Change at the End of the Late Holocene and in the Anthropocene in the Middle Volga Region, European Russia
The temporal variability of air temperature in the Middle Volga region from 1828 to 2021 is considered according to instrumental observations at the oldest meteorological station in the east of the East European Plain (Kazan University) and throughout the Asian part of Russia against the background of long-term climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth. A general trend toward an increase in air temperature was revealed. It was found that climate change in Kazan was consistent with the climatic processes that occurred in the Middle Volga region as a whole. The greatest warming for the entire observation period was observed in the winter and spring seasons of the year. In December, warming occurred at a maximum rate of 0.28 °C/10 years. At the same time, the most intense warming process was observed from 1991 to 2021. The analysis of low-frequency fluctuations in the series of monthly average air temperatures made it possible to identify different periods of change, both in type (direction) and intensity. It is shown that in the Middle Volga region, positive anomalies of air temperature have occurred more often than negative ones in recent decades. Statistical data processing was also carried out for 30-year periods, starting from the first period, i.e., 1841–1870. This made it possible to reveal long-term changes in air temperature. Comparisons of climatic parameters in two periods, i.e., 1828–1945 and 1946–2021, allowed us to reliably detect the climatic beginning of the increasingly identifiable Anthropocene epoch (since 1946), characterized by a sharp increase in air temperature, increased interannual variability of the air temperature regime, and a significant increase (by about three times) in the rate of warming in the Middle Volga region. A correlation was made between atmospheric circulation indices and air temperature fluctuations in Kazan over different periods. The closest relationship was found for the 1990–2020 period. It is shown that the contribution of global factors to air temperature variability in the Middle Volga region during the Anthropocene reached 37% in winter and 32% in summer; in annual terms, this contribution amounted to 54%.
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来源期刊
Quaternary
Quaternary GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
4.30%
发文量
44
审稿时长
11 weeks
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