Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily

Abstract. Wildfires are key not only to landscape transformation and vegetation succession, but also to socio-ecological values loss. Fire risk mapping can help to manage the most vulnerable and relevant ecosystems impacted by wildfires. However, few studies provide accessible daily dynamic results at different spatio-temporal scales. We develop a fire risk model for Sicily (Italy), an iconic case of the Mediterranean Basin, integrating a fire hazard model with an exposure and vulnerability analysis under present and future conditions. The integrated model is data-driven but can run dynamically at a daily time step, providing spatially and temporally explicit results through the k.LAB (Knowledge Laboratory) software. This software provides an environment for input data integration, combining methods and data such as geographic information systems, remote sensing and Bayesian network algorithms. All data and models are semantically annotated, open and downloadable in agreement with the FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable). The fire risk analysis reveals that 45 % of vulnerable areas of Sicily have a high probability of fire occurrence in 2050. The risk model outputs also include qualitative risk indexes, which can make the results more understandable for non-technical stakeholders. We argue that this approach is well suited to aiding in landscape and fire risk management, under both current and climate change conditions.