确定老挝农民的目标和他们的排名使用最佳-最差规模实验和规模调整的潜在阶级模型

IF 1.9 Q3 MANAGEMENT Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-04-29 DOI:10.1002/mcda.1785
Damien Jourdain, Juliette Lairez, François Affholder
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了更好地设计更可持续的农业系统,并为多标准农业决策模型的发展做准备,我们调查了农民在决策时如何对他们的主要目标进行排序。首先,我们通过与随机选择的农民进行深度访谈来确定农民的主要目标,我们使用小型游戏来引出他们在做出农场层面决策时所使用的主要目标。然后,我们开发了一个最佳最差尺度(BWS)实验,在这个实验中,农民必须宣布他们在做决策时使用的“最重要”和“最不重要”的目标。该试验在120名农民中进行。我们首先根据人口平均水平得出目标的排名,这表明了大米自给自足和农业资本转移的重要性。然后我们使用量表调整的潜在类分析。我们在农民中确定了四组同质偏好。使用差异化量表(一种衡量选择不一致性的方法)表明,对排名的确定程度不同,而在询问最不重要的目标时,存在更多的不一致性。虽然一大群人只关注大米自给自足和农场传播,但我们也确定了一群优化者和风险厌恶者。每个群体的农民在可持续创新方面的行为可能不同。我们还表明,一些描述农场和家庭的社会经济变量影响了农民属于四个类别之一的概率。总的来说,我们证明了BWS分级实验提供了关于排名多样性的丰富信息。它还提供了一套工具来评估受访者的选择的一致性和质量。
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Identify Lao farmers' goals and their ranking using best–worst scaling experiment and scale-adjusted latent class models

In order to better design more sustainable farming systems, and prepare for the development of multi-criteria farm decision model, we investigate how farmers rank their main goals when making decisions. First, we identified the main goals used by farmers through in-depth interviews with randomly selected farmers in which we used small games to elicit the main goals they are using to make farm-level decisions. Then, we developed a best–worst scaling (BWS) experiment, in which farmers have to declare the “most” and the least “important” goals they use when making decisions. The experiment was conducted with 120 farmers. We first derive a ranking of the goals according to the population average, which showed the importance of rice self-sufficiency and transmission of farm capital. We then use a scale-adjusted latent class analysis. We identified four groups of homogenous preferences among farmers. The use of differentiated scale, a measure of choice inconsistencies, suggested different levels of certainty about the ranking, and the presence of more inconsistencies when asking the least important goal. While a large group focuses only on rice self-sufficiency, and farm transmission, we also identified a group of optimizers, and risk-averse farmers. Farmers of each group are likely to behave differently with regard to sustainable innovations. We also showed that some socio-economic variables describing the farms and the households influenced the probabilities for farmers to belong to one of the four classes. Overall, we showed that BWS scaling experiments provide a rich set of information about the diversity of rankings. It also provides the set of tools to evaluate the consistency and quality of respondents' choices.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
14
期刊介绍: The Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was launched in 1992, and from the outset has aimed to be the repository of choice for papers covering all aspects of MCDA/MCDM. The journal provides an international forum for the presentation and discussion of all aspects of research, application and evaluation of multi-criteria decision analysis, and publishes material from a variety of disciplines and all schools of thought. Papers addressing mathematical, theoretical, and behavioural aspects are welcome, as are case studies, applications and evaluation of techniques and methodologies.
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