危机下的全球情景:以后COVID-19时代为例

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI:10.1108/fs-12-2021-0248
R. Hafezi, Pardis Asemi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的新冠肺炎疫情对人类社会产生了重大影响;统计数据显示,许多国家在2020年底的经济增长幅度很小,甚至为负。这场疫情证明,不考虑社会和环境等其他因素而偏向经济问题的发展是不可持续的,甚至可能是危机的根源。本文旨在发现宏观层面上可行的替代未来,国家、企业和社会可以改变惯例,走向更美好的和平未来。设计/方法/方法为了实现这一点,研究了新冠肺炎大流行后出现的趋势,并确定了一些不确定性。在不确定性的交叉点,场景是基于全球商业网络(GBN)方法形成的。GBN有助于绘制关于合理未来的宏观图像。主要的不确定性来自三种不同但相互关联的性质,包括:全球化方法(社会视角)、价值概念方法(商业视角)和治理方法(国家/治理视角)。每种不确定性都可能有两种极端的选择;因此,由备选方案的交集形成了八个不同概率的场景空间。然后介绍了最有利的场景,并提出了实现更美好未来的策略。发现在当前的模式下,各国将在快速重建经济的竞赛中牺牲环境来促进经济增长,对新冠肺炎疫情后的担忧将继续加剧。而在有利的情况下,在可持续发展中寻求价值创造。这意味着偏离有利情景以实现短期目标是完全可以预测的。尽管我们已经了解到,随着时间的推移,新冠肺炎大流行是可控和可管理的,但政府没有做出任何努力或承诺来消除新冠肺炎的源头(至少到今天为止)。独创性/价值这项研究的主要独创性出现在实践方面。本文分析和预测了全球层面的情景,并研究了社会、政府和企业在具有偏见的发展范式的现代世界中面临的挑战。此外,对应对全球危机的不同观点也进行了评价和批评。
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Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era
Purpose COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future. Design/methodology/approach To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future. Findings In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today). Originality/value The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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