股权定价的违约风险方法综述,重点关注巴基斯坦违约风险评估和股权定价领域的进展

Jamil Ahmed, J. A. Khilji
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是从巴基斯坦的角度审查违约风险建模文献,巴基斯坦已努力涵盖三类此类模型,即基于会计、结构和Logit的风险模型。根据审查,很明显,前两种建模技术在巴基斯坦广泛使用,Z-Score和KMV-Merton模型是常用的估计技术。由于数据问题,风险模型的使用最少,因为大多数退市公司的数据在2000年之前都无法在汤森路透和彭博社等数据服务中获得,甚至巴基斯坦证券交易所等当地数据来源也没有多大帮助。由于这个原因,在巴基斯坦,风险模型在违约风险估计中的应用最少,而神经网络模型在2020年只有一篇论文被最为忽视。该审查有助于确定这一研究领域的差距,其中包括确定巴基斯坦未来研究的模型和数据问题,以及股权定价影响。
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A Survey of Default Risk Methodologies for Equity Pricing with a Focus on Advances in the Field of Default Risk Assessment and Equity Pricing in Pakistan
The aim of this study is to review the default risk modelling literature from the perspective of Pakistan, where an effort has been put to cover the three classes of such models i.e. Accounting, Structural and Logit based hazard models. As per review it is very clear that the first two modelling techniques are extensively employed in Pakistan with Z-Score and KMV Merton model as commonly used estimation technique. Hazard models are the least used due to data issues, as for majority of delisted firms’ data is not available in data services like Thomson Reuters Eikon and Bloomberg before 2000 and even local data sources like Pakistan Stock Exchange is not of much help. Due to the reason Hazard Models are least employed for default risk estimation in Pakistan along with neural network models being most neglected one with only one paper in 2020. The review helps in identifying the gaps in this area of study, which include identification of models for future research and data issues in Pakistan along with equity pricing implications.
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