{"title":"墨西哥北部边境各州的失业和犯罪:一个空间贝叶斯自回归向量方法","authors":"V. H. Torres‐Preciado","doi":"10.29105/ENSAYOS36.1-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Despite the recent episodes of criminal activity intensification in Mexico, it is striking the scarcity of studies analyzing its relationship with unemployment rate fluctuations. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impact that an external shock of a surprising increase in unemployment rates would have upon crime activity, particularly, robberies in Mexico’s northern Border States. To this end, a spatial Bayesian VAR that follows LeSage and Cashell (2015) is applied. Results suggest a heterogeneous response of robberies across northern Border States. For instance, in some states such as Chihuahua, the number of robberies seems to deploy transitory effects, while Tamaulipas appears to be less sensitive to own and neighbor state unemployment fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":42950,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2017-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a spatial-Bayesian autoregressive vector approach\",\"authors\":\"V. H. Torres‐Preciado\",\"doi\":\"10.29105/ENSAYOS36.1-2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Despite the recent episodes of criminal activity intensification in Mexico, it is striking the scarcity of studies analyzing its relationship with unemployment rate fluctuations. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impact that an external shock of a surprising increase in unemployment rates would have upon crime activity, particularly, robberies in Mexico’s northern Border States. To this end, a spatial Bayesian VAR that follows LeSage and Cashell (2015) is applied. Results suggest a heterogeneous response of robberies across northern Border States. For instance, in some states such as Chihuahua, the number of robberies seems to deploy transitory effects, while Tamaulipas appears to be less sensitive to own and neighbor state unemployment fluctuations.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42950,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-04-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.29105/ENSAYOS36.1-2\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ensayos-Revista de la Facultad de Educacion de Albacete","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.29105/ENSAYOS36.1-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a spatial-Bayesian autoregressive vector approach
Despite the recent episodes of criminal activity intensification in Mexico, it is striking the scarcity of studies analyzing its relationship with unemployment rate fluctuations. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impact that an external shock of a surprising increase in unemployment rates would have upon crime activity, particularly, robberies in Mexico’s northern Border States. To this end, a spatial Bayesian VAR that follows LeSage and Cashell (2015) is applied. Results suggest a heterogeneous response of robberies across northern Border States. For instance, in some states such as Chihuahua, the number of robberies seems to deploy transitory effects, while Tamaulipas appears to be less sensitive to own and neighbor state unemployment fluctuations.