为什么气候变化的影响可能使我们不太可能减少排放

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Sustainability Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI:10.1017/sus.2022.20
J. Millward-Hopkins
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引用次数: 3

摘要

人们普遍认为,一旦更直接、更实质性地体验到气候变暖的影响,尤其是富裕人群,对优先考虑雄心勃勃的减排的政治的必要支持就会随之而来。但考虑到气候变暖对社会经济的间接影响,这可能是错误的希望。随着气候变暖的直接影响加剧——尤其是在富裕的全球北方——一种足以应对气候紧急情况的雄心勃勃的政治可能最终会得到支持,这一普遍直觉得到了一些证据的支持。然而,至少同样有可能的是,相反的趋势将占上风。考虑到气候变暖的各种间接影响,包括(国家内部和国家之间)社会经济不平等的扩大,(国内和国际)移民的增加以及冲突风险的增加(从暴力和战争到仇恨言论和犯罪),可以理解这一命题。汇总这些影响,可以发现,这些影响与21世纪激增的威权民粹主义的主要驱动因素存在相当大且极不方便的重叠。它强调了社会生态反馈循环的风险,在这种循环中,变暖的后果创造了一个与减排所需的政治环境完全不一致的政治环境。当然,这样的未来远非不可避免。尽管如此,这些风险突出表明,迫切需要为气候变化和不平等的综合解决方案寻求公众支持,这远远超出了现状。这不仅是出于经济和气候正义的原因,也是为了减轻碳减排本身的政治障碍。随着气候变暖的影响越来越直接和实质性,我们可能会把票投给错误的人。
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Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions
Non-technical summary A widely held belief is that once the impacts of warming are experienced more directly and substantially, especially by affluent populations, the necessary support for a politics prioritising ambitious emissions reductions will follow. But consideration of the indirect socioeconomic impacts of warming suggests this could be false hope. Technical summary There is some evidence to support the common intuition that, as the direct impacts of warming intensify – particularly in the affluent Global North – a politics ambitious enough to confront the climate emergency may finally find support. However, it seems at least equally likely that the opposite trend will prevail. This proposition can be understood by considering various indirect impacts of warming, including the widening of socioeconomic inequalities (within and between countries), increases in migration (intra- and inter-nationally) and heightened risk of conflict (from violence and war through to hate speech and crime). Compiling these impacts reveals a considerable and highly inconvenient overlap with key drivers of the authoritarian populism that has proliferated in the 21st century. It highlights the risk of a socio-ecological feedback loop where the consequences of warming create a political environment entirely at odds with that required to reduce emissions. Such a future is, of course, far from inevitable. Nonetheless, the risks highlight the urgent need to find public support for combined solutions to climate change and inequality, which go well beyond the status-quo. This is necessary not only for reasons of economic and climate justice, but in order to mitigate political barriers to carbon mitigation itself. Social media summary As the impacts of warming are experienced more directly and substantially, we may vote for precisely the wrong people.
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来源期刊
Global Sustainability
Global Sustainability Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊最新文献
Reassessing the need for carbon dioxide removal: moral implications of alternative climate target pathways Attitudes toward water resilience and potential for improvement Justice in benefitting from carbon removal Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024 From climate science to climate action
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