{"title":"伊朗石油价格冲击到通货膨胀的动态路径：Markov切换和TVP-VAR模型的应用","authors":"M. Rafei, S. Mamipour, Nasim Bahari","doi":"10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nPurpose\nThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2\n\n\nDesign/methodology/approach\nThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions. The period is divided into sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods by Markov switching model.\n\n\nFindings\nThe results show that the pass-through of oil price shocks into Iran’s inflation are time-varying, and there are significant differences at sanction period from other time horizons. An increase in oil price has a positive effect on inflation and its effects are stronger during the sanctions period. It is also observed that the producer price index is more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the consumer price index. The necessity of the government’s earnest efforts to improve international relations to lift the sanctions, along with diversification of exports, and making the economy of Iran independent of oil revenues is obvious.\n\n\nOriginality/value\nIn addition to the exogenous oil price shocks, Iran’s economy faces numerous restrictions for its oil exports due to the sanctions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions.\n","PeriodicalId":46430,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamic path through of oil price shocks into inflation in Iran: application of Markov switching and TVP-VAR models\",\"authors\":\"M. Rafei, S. Mamipour, Nasim Bahari\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nPurpose\\nThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2\\n\\n\\nDesign/methodology/approach\\nThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions. The period is divided into sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods by Markov switching model.\\n\\n\\nFindings\\nThe results show that the pass-through of oil price shocks into Iran’s inflation are time-varying, and there are significant differences at sanction period from other time horizons. An increase in oil price has a positive effect on inflation and its effects are stronger during the sanctions period. It is also observed that the producer price index is more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the consumer price index. The necessity of the government’s earnest efforts to improve international relations to lift the sanctions, along with diversification of exports, and making the economy of Iran independent of oil revenues is obvious.\\n\\n\\nOriginality/value\\nIn addition to the exogenous oil price shocks, Iran’s economy faces numerous restrictions for its oil exports due to the sanctions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":46430,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Energy Sector Management\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-12-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Energy Sector Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Energy Sector Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-05-2022-0016","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamic path through of oil price shocks into inflation in Iran: application of Markov switching and TVP-VAR models
Purpose
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2
Design/methodology/approach
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions. The period is divided into sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods by Markov switching model.
Findings
The results show that the pass-through of oil price shocks into Iran’s inflation are time-varying, and there are significant differences at sanction period from other time horizons. An increase in oil price has a positive effect on inflation and its effects are stronger during the sanctions period. It is also observed that the producer price index is more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the consumer price index. The necessity of the government’s earnest efforts to improve international relations to lift the sanctions, along with diversification of exports, and making the economy of Iran independent of oil revenues is obvious.
Originality/value
In addition to the exogenous oil price shocks, Iran’s economy faces numerous restrictions for its oil exports due to the sanctions. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics effects of the oil price shocks on Iran’s inflation in the period 1993:2–2018:2 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The dynamics of the results enable us to study the amount and severity of the impact of the oil price shocks on inflation with the distinction of the sanctioned and non-sanctioned periods. The volume of oil export is used to identify the effective oil sanctions.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Energy Sector Management aims to facilitate dissemination of research on issues relating to supply management (covering the entire supply chain of resource finding, extraction, production, treatment, conversion, transportation, distribution and retail supply), demand and usage management, waste management, customer and other stakeholder management, and solutions thereto. The journal covers all forms of energy (non-renewable and renewable), forms of supply (centralised or decentralised), ownership patterns (public or private, cooperative, joint, or any other), market structures (formal, informal, integrated, disintegrated, national, international, local, etc.) and degress of commoditisation (e.g. internationally traded, regionally traded, non-traded, etc.). The journal aims to cover a wide range of subjects relevant to the management of the energy sector, including but not limited to: Management of scarce resources (economic, financial, human and natural), projects, activities and concerns (e.g. regulatory, social and environmental aspects), technologies and knowledge Business strategy, policy and planning as well as decision support systems for energy sector management Business organisation, structure and environment, and changes thereto Globalisation and multi-cultural management Management of innovation, change and transition.
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