Estimation on Chinese families who lost their only child and the fiscal sustainability of the social assistance system

Abstract China implemented a universal two-child policy in 2016. But its earlier one-child policy resulted in a large population of one-child parents who face miserable later lives if their only-child passes away before them. China’s Current social assistance to such Shidu families is not supportive enough and provides insufficient coverage. Using demographic methods, this paper estimates both the mortality of only-children and the population of Shidu parents over 49 years-old. Furthermore, it advocates for improvements to the standard of social assistance for Shidu families and measures the financial sustainability of that suggested standard. After analyzing Chinese national census data and China Fertility Status Survey data, we found that the risk of death for a rural only-child was higher than for an urban only-child in every age group. Following the concept of period parity progression, we estimated the scale of Shidu parents, which will gradually increase to a peak of 1.05 million in 2030. Considering present policies and the Shidu parents’ unmet needs, we argue that China’s central government should increase its economic support of such families, include those support policies in a comprehensive social security system, and offer more emotional care.