Bus evacuation during no-notice disasters in downtown areas: A case study of the Zhongguancun area, Beijing

This paper focuses on the bus evacuation problem with pedestrians’ short-distance walking ability between bus stations during no-notice disasters in downtown areas. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed to solve this problem. The objective function is to minimize the evacuation time and number of casualties. The model obtains the flow of evacuees and buses on each arc to the route of buses in the process of evacuation. Furthermore, a real-time bus evacuation demand estimation method is proposed based on smart card data. Finally, the example of Zhongguancun area in Beijing is used to verify the practicality and validity of the model. The results show that pedestrian short-distance walking can effectively reduce casualties and improve the utilization rate of buses.