2020年气候科学的十大新见解——地平线扫描

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Sustainability Pub Date : 2021-01-27 DOI:10.1017/sus.2021.2
Erik Pihl, E. Alfredsson, M. Bengtsson, K. Bowen, Vanesa Castán Broto, Kuei-Tien Chou, H. Cleugh, K. Ebi, Clea M. Edwards, E. Fisher, P. Friedlingstein, A. Godoy-Faúndez, M. Gupta, A. Harrington, K. Hayes, Bronwyn Hayward, S. Hebden, T. Hickmann, G. Hugelius, T. Ilyina, R. B. Jackson, T. Keenan, R. Lambino, S. Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, R. McDonald, C. McMichael, Clark A. Miller, M. Muratori, N. Nagabhatla, H. Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, J. Peñuelas, J. Pongratz, J. Rockström, P. Romero‐Lankao, J. Roy, Adam A. Scaife, P. Schlosser, E. Schuur, Michelle Scobie, S. Sherwood, G. B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon, S. Sonntag, J. Spangenberg, O. Spijkers, L. Srivastava, D. Stammer, P. Torres, M. Turetsky, A. Ukkola, D. V. van Vuuren, C. Voigt, C. Wannous, M. Zelinka
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引用次数: 18

摘要

我们总结了过去一年气候变化相关研究的一些最重要的发现。新的研究提高了我们对地球对二氧化碳敏感性的认识,发现永久冻土解冻可能释放出比预期更多的碳排放,热带生态系统对碳的吸收正在减弱。对人类社会的不利影响包括水资源日益短缺和对心理健康的影响。从重新思考经济模式、基于权利的诉讼、加强治理体系和新的社会契约等方面可以找到解决办法。COVID-19造成的破坏可以被视为积极变革的机会,将经济刺激转向可持续投资。通过具有广泛学科范围的专家启发过程,对自2019年年中以来取得重大进展的气候科学领域的十个领域进行了综合。研究结果包括:(1)更好地理解平衡气候敏感性;(2)冻土带突变解冻加速碳释放;(3)全球和区域陆地碳汇变化;(4)气候变化对水危机的影响,包括公平视角;(5)气候变化对心理健康的不利影响;(6) 2019冠状病毒病大流行对气候的直接影响以及落实《巴黎协定》所需的一揽子恢复措施;(7)建议从当前的大流行中吸取教训,对治理和社会契约进行长期改革,以应对气候变化;(8)更新了正成本效益比,并从短期和长期角度对绿色增长潜力提出了新的看法;(9)城市电气化是向低碳能源系统迈进的一种战略;(10)基于权利的诉讼是应对气候变化的一种日益重要的方法,最近对后代的法律地位和代表进行了澄清。永久冻土融化加剧、COVID-19效应和心理健康影响日益严重是最新气候科学的亮点。
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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来源期刊
Global Sustainability
Global Sustainability Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊最新文献
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