按年龄分列的生育率概率预测和预测(1895-2040年)

Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi
{"title":"按年龄分列的生育率概率预测和预测(1895-2040年)","authors":"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)\",\"authors\":\"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi\",\"doi\":\"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.\",\"PeriodicalId\":30944,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-12-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"DEMOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2

摘要

本文的目标是利用人口动态统计(1980-2014年)、人口估计、人口普查和1955-1980年期间按年龄划分的生育率先前估计,对阿根廷的生育率进行建模和预测。使用函数序列模型,我们在国家层面上估计了1895-1950年和2015-2040年期间按年龄划分的生育率。所获得的数据允许构建过去和未来可能的特定年龄生育率情景,并揭示了与一般社会人口信息和趋势的相对一致性,使我们能够重新讨论有关生育率过渡过程的问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)
The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
25.00%
发文量
3
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊最新文献
Síntomas depresivos y COVID-19 en adultos de México Exceso de mortalidad durante la pandemia de COVID-19. Opciones metodológicas a partir de la información disponible en Argentina, de 2020 a 2021 El descenso de la fecundidad y la maternidad adolescente en América Latina y su desigualdad socioterritorial: el caso de cinco grandes ciudades ¿Afecta el contexto económico a la intención de volver al país de origen? El caso de los emigrantes chilenos Fertility Transition in Brazilian Municipalities: An Exploratory Analysis of Cross-sectional Data in 1991, 2000 and 2010
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1