按年龄分列的生育率概率预测和预测(1895-2040年)

Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文的目标是利用人口动态统计(1980-2014年)、人口估计、人口普查和1955-1980年期间按年龄划分的生育率先前估计,对阿根廷的生育率进行建模和预测。使用函数序列模型,我们在国家层面上估计了1895-1950年和2015-2040年期间按年龄划分的生育率。所获得的数据允许构建过去和未来可能的特定年龄生育率情景,并揭示了与一般社会人口信息和趋势的相对一致性,使我们能够重新讨论有关生育率过渡过程的问题。
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Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)
The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.
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来源期刊
自引率
25.00%
发文量
3
审稿时长
6 weeks
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