Advantages of altering cropping schedules in the face of climate variability: A case study of Tan Ky sugarcane cultivation area, Nghe An province

Tan Ky is known as one of the sugarcane cultivation regions (SCRs) of Nghe An Province, Vietnam. In recent years, the area is facing adverse weather factors, as a part of climate variability, resulting in a significant decrease in the income of cane growers. The study, therefore, is to estimate the benefits of the sugarcane growing practical (SGP) for the SCRs of Tan Ky district in the background of climate change and further seek effective adaptation solutions as well as optimize profits. Sugarcane yield was evaluated by simulating the APSIM-Sugar model (Version 7.0) based on the soil, crop varieties, field management and climate data during the period of 2000-21. The performance of the proposed model was appraised by comparing the simulated results with observed biomass and sugarcane yield data through the statistical indices with R2=0.83 ÷ 0.86, d=0.80 ÷ 0.88, and RMSE=0.16 ÷ 0.18. Results indicated that under the same cultivation conditions, the SGP in the adverse weather period could lead to a slight decline in the sugarcane yield around 6.8% for spring crop season compared to the favourable weather period. In general, the SGP across the SCRs of Tan Ky district are not suitable for the local cane growers and that may be one of the main causes leading to the decline in sugarcane yield and further decrease in cane growers’ incomes.