Counterfeiting and firm survival. Do international trade activities matter?

Counterfeiting is a phenomenon that threatens global competition and economic growth, and it is well-known that the presence of illicit fake products unfairly altering competition, can affect firm profitability and even, in some cases, force owners to close their businesses or declare bankruptcy. By introducing three new complementary measures of counterfeiting, this study examines the intra- and inter-industry effects of counterfeiting on Italian firm survival taking into consideration the differing degree of a firm’s involvement in international trade activities. Overall, the results of micro-econometric analysis indicate that the probability of a genuine firm exiting the market increases when the effect flows from the “fake” sector to its upstream genuine suppliers; vice versa, it decreases when the effect flows from the “fake” sector to its downstream genuine customers. However, when classifying firms as trading and no trading firms, we found that these results are confirmed only for the latter. Our evidence, which is robust to different estimation methods, provides room for policy and manager interventions.