Model and analysis of the effect of China’s potential domestic emission control area with 0.1% sulphur limit

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of China’s potential domestic emission control area (DECA) with 0.1 per cent sulphur limit on sulphur emission reduction. Design/methodology/approach The authors calculate the fuel cost of a direct path within the DECA and a path that bypasses the DECA for ships that sail between two Chinese ports in view of the DECA. Ships adopt the path with the lower cost and the resulting sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions can be calculated. They then conduct sensitivity analysis of the SO2 emissions with different values of the parameters related to sailing distance, fuel price and ships. Findings The results show that ships tend to detour to bypass the DECA when the distance between the two ports is long, the ratio of the price of low sulphur fuel and that of high sulphur fuel is high and the required time for fuel switching is long. If the time required for fuel switching is less than 12 h or even 24 h, it can be anticipated that a large number of ships will bypass the DECA, undermining the SO2 reduction effect of the DECA. Originality/value This study points out the size and shape difference between the emission control areas in Europe and North America and China’s DECA affects ships’ path choice and SO2 emissions.