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Predictive modelling in the shipping industry: analysis from supply and demand sides 航运业的预测建模:供需双方的分析
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-04-2024-0038
Siying Zhu, Cheng-Hsien Hsieh

Purpose

Maritime transportation plays an important role in facilitating both the global and regional merchandise trade, where accurate trend prediction is crucial in assisting decision-making in the industry. This paper aims to conduct a macro-level study to predict world vessel supply and demand.

Design/methodology/approach

The automatic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used for the univariate vessel supply and demand time-series forecasting based on the data records from 1980 to 2021.

Findings

For the future projection of the demand side, the predicted outcomes for total vessel demand and world dry cargo vessel demand until 2030 indicate upward trends. For the supply side, the predominant upward trends for world total vessel supply, oil tanker vessel supply, container vessel supply and other types of vessel supply are captured. The world bulk carrier vessel supply prediction results indicate an initial upward trend, followed by a slight decline, while the forecasted world general cargo vessel supply values remain relatively stable. By comparing the predicted percentage change rates, there is a gradual convergence between demand and supply change rates in the near future. We also find that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the time-series prediction results is not statistically significant.

Originality/value

The results can provide policy implications in strategic planning and operation to various stakeholders in the shipping industry for vessel building, scrapping and deployment.

目的 海运在促进全球和区域商品贸易方面发挥着重要作用,准确的趋势预测对于协助行业决策至关重要。本文旨在从宏观层面对世界船舶供需进行预测研究。设计/方法/途径根据 1980 年至 2021 年的数据记录,采用自动自回归综合移动平均法(ARIMA)对船舶供需进行单变量时间序列预测。研究结果对于需求方的未来预测,2030 年之前的船舶总需求和世界干货船需求预测结果均呈上升趋势。在供应方面,世界船舶总供应量、油轮供应量、集装箱供应量和其他类型船舶供应量均呈上升趋势。世界散货船供应量预测结果表明,最初呈上升趋势,随后略有下降,而世界杂货船供应量预测值保持相对稳定。通过比较预测的百分比变化率,需求和供应变化率在不久的将来会逐渐趋同。我们还发现,COVID-19 大流行对时间序列预测结果的影响在统计上并不显著。原创性/价值该结果可为航运业各利益相关方在船舶建造、报废和调配方面的战略规划和运营提供政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Electric tugboat deployment in maritime transportation: detailed analysis of advantages and disadvantages 电动拖船在海上运输中的应用:优缺点详细分析
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-12-2023-0086
Shanmukh Devarapali, Ashley Manske, Razieh Khayamim, Edwina Jacobs, Bokang Li, Zeinab Elmi, Maxim A. Dulebenets
<h3>Purpose</h3><p> This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of electric tugboat deployment in maritime transportation, including an in-depth assessment of its advantages and disadvantages. Along with the identification of advantages and disadvantages of electric tugboat deployment, the present research also aims to provide managerial insights into the economic viability of different tugboat alternatives that can guide future investments in the following years.</p><!--/ Abstract__block --><h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3><p> A detailed literature review was conducted, aiming to gain broad insights into tugboat operations and focusing on different aspects, including tugboat accidents and safety issues, scheduling and berthing of tugboats, life cycle assessment of diesel tugboats and their alternatives, operations of electric and hybrid tugboats, environmental impacts and others. Moreover, a set of interviews was conducted with the leading experts in the electric tugboat industry, including DAMEN Shipyards and the Port of Auckland. Econometric analyses were performed as well to evaluate the financial viability and economic performance of electric tugboats and their alternatives (i.e. conventional tugboats and hybrid tugboats).</p><!--/ Abstract__block --><h3>Findings</h3><p> The advantages of electric tugboats encompass decreased emissions, reduced operating expenses, improved energy efficiency, lower noise levels and potential for digital transformation through automation and data analytics. However, high initial costs, infrastructure limitations, training requirements and restricted range need to be addressed. The electric tugboat alternative seems to be the best option for scenarios with low interest rate values as increasing interest values negatively impact the salvage value of electric tugboats. It is expected that for long-term planning, the electric and hybrid tugboat alternatives will become preferential since they have lower annual costs than conventional diesel tugboats.</p><!--/ Abstract__block --><h3>Practical implications</h3><p> The outcomes of this research provide managerial insights into the practical deployment of electric tugboats and point to future research needs, including battery improvements, cost reduction, infrastructure development, legislative and regulatory changes and alternative energy sources. The advancement of battery technology has the potential to significantly impact the cost dynamics associated with electric tugboats. It is essential to do further research to monitor the advancements in battery technology and analyze their corresponding financial ramifications. It is essential to closely monitor the industry’s shift toward electric tugboats as their prices become more affordable.</p><!--/ Abstract__block --><h3>Originality/value</h3><p> The maritime industry is rapidly transforming and facing pressing challenges related to sustainability and digitization. Electric tugboats represent a prom
目的 本研究旨在全面回顾电动拖船在海上运输中的应用,包括深入评估其优缺点。在确定电动拖船部署的优缺点的同时,本研究还旨在为不同拖船替代品的经济可行性提供管理见解,从而为未来几年的投资提供指导。 设计/方法/途径 进行了详细的文献综述,旨在获得对拖船运营的广泛见解,并重点关注不同方面,包括拖船事故和安全问题、拖船的调度和停泊、柴油拖船及其替代品的生命周期评估、电动和混合动力拖船的运营、环境影响等。此外,还采访了电动拖船行业的主要专家,包括达门造船厂和奥克兰港。研究还进行了计量经济学分析,以评估电动拖船及其替代品(即传统拖船和混合动力拖船)的财务可行性和经济效益。 研究结果 电动拖船的优势包括减少排放、降低运营成本、提高能源效率、降低噪音水平以及通过自动化和数据分析实现数字化转型的潜力。但是,需要解决初始成本高、基础设施限制、培训要求和航程受限等问题。在利率值较低的情况下,电动拖船似乎是最佳选择,因为利率值的增加会对电动拖船的残值产生负面影响。预计在长期规划中,电动拖船和混合动力拖船将成为首选,因为它们的年成本低于传统柴油拖船。 本研究成果为电动拖船的实际部署提供了管理见解,并指出了未来的研究需求,包括电池改进、成本降低、基础设施发展、立法和监管变化以及替代能源。电池技术的进步有可能对电动拖船的成本动态产生重大影响。有必要开展进一步研究,以监测电池技术的进步,并分析其相应的财务影响。原创性/价值 海运业正在迅速转型,并面临着与可持续发展和数字化相关的紧迫挑战。电动拖船是一种前景广阔的创新解决方案,可通过零排放操作、提高能效和集成数字技术来应对其中的一些挑战。考虑到电动拖船的潜力,本研究全面回顾了电动拖船在海上运输中的优缺点,广泛评估了相关文献,采访了行业专家,并进行了计量经济学分析。本研究的成果将惠及政府机构、政策制定者和其他相关的海运利益相关者。
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引用次数: 0
Discovering supply chain operation towards sustainability using machine learning and DES techniques: a case study in Vietnam seafood 利用机器学习和 DES 技术发现供应链运作的可持续性:越南海产品案例研究
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-10-2023-0074
Luan Thanh Le, Trang Xuan-Thi-Thu

Purpose

To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the era of Logistics 4.0, machine learning (ML) techniques and simulations have emerged as highly optimized tools. This study examines the operational dynamics of a supply chain (SC) in Vietnam as a case study utilizing an ML simulation approach.

Design/methodology/approach

A robust fuel consumption estimation model is constructed by leveraging multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN). Subsequently, the proposed model is seamlessly integrated into a cutting-edge SC simulation framework.

Findings

This paper provides valuable insights and actionable recommendations, empowering SC practitioners to optimize operational efficiencies and fostering an avenue for further scholarly investigations and advancements in this field.

Originality/value

This study introduces a novel approach assessing sustainable SC performance by utilizing both traditional regression and ML models to estimate transportation costs, which are then inputted into the discrete event simulation (DES) model.

目的为了在物流 4.0 时代实现可持续发展目标(SDGs),机器学习(ML)技术和模拟已成为高度优化的工具。本研究以越南的一条供应链(SC)为案例,利用 ML 仿真方法对其运营动态进行了研究。设计/方法/途径利用多元线性回归(MLR)和人工神经网络(ANN)构建了一个稳健的燃料消耗估算模型。本文提供了有价值的见解和可操作的建议,使供应链从业人员能够优化运营效率,并为该领域的进一步学术研究和进步开辟了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Maritime logistics and digital transformation with big data: review and research trend 海运物流与大数据的数字化转型:回顾与研究趋势
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-10-2023-0069
Jiyoon An

Purpose

This paper summarizes and synthesizes existing research while critically assessing findings for future studies to advance the scholarship of maritime logistics and digital transformation with big data.

Design/methodology/approach

A bibliometric analysis was conducted on 159 journal articles from the Scopus database with search keywords “maritime*” and “big data.” This analysis helps identify research gaps by identifying themes via keyword co-occurrence, co-citation and bibliographic coupling analysis. The Theory-Context-Characteristics-Methodology (TCCM) framework was applied to understand the findings of bibliometric analysis and provide a research agenda.

Findings

The analyses identified emerging themes of the scholarship of maritime logistics and digital transformation with big data and their relationships to identify research clusters. Future research directions were provided by examining existing research's theory, context, characteristics and method.

Originality/value

This research is grounded in bibliometric analysis and the TCCM framework to understand the scholarly evolution, giving managers and academics retrospective and prospective insights.

本文对现有研究进行了总结和归纳,同时对未来研究的结论进行了批判性评估,以推动海运物流和大数据数字化转型的学术研究。设计/方法/途径以 "海运*"和 "大数据 "为搜索关键词,对 Scopus 数据库中的 159 篇期刊论文进行了文献计量分析。该分析通过关键词共现、共引和书目耦合分析确定主题,从而帮助找出研究差距。分析确定了海事物流和大数据数字化转型学术研究的新兴主题及其关系,从而确定了研究集群。通过研究现有研究的理论、背景、特点和方法,提供了未来的研究方向。原创性/价值本研究以文献计量分析和 TCCM 框架为基础,旨在了解学术演变,为管理者和学者提供回顾性和前瞻性的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing risk dimensions in dry port projects: prioritization, interdependence and heterogeneity 评估陆港项目的风险因素:优先顺序、相互依存性和异质性
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-09-2023-0064
Thiago de Almeida Rodrigues, Udechukwu Ojiako, Caroline Maria de Miranda Mota, Alasdair Marshall, Maxwell Chipulu, Fikri Dweiri

Purpose

We identify and further aggregate the most commonly engaged risk factors in dry port projects into dimensions. Noting the importance of developing a multi-perspective view of risk, we further assess the priority, interdependency and heterogeneity of the identified risk dimensions.

Design/methodology/approach

We identified 44 risk factors from the literature, which were aggregated via exploratory factor analysis (EFA) into 8 major risk dimensions. We employ a fuzzy-based decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) relationship map to articulate various relationships among the risk dimensions.

Findings

“Cost” emerged as the most important risk influencing the success of the dry port project, followed by “location,” “accessibility,” “infrastructural” and “operational,” which were also ranked prominently.

Originality/value

This study offers significant insight into the management of risk in dry port projects. By aggregating key risk factors into distinct dimensions, we develop a structured framework for effective risk assessment and management. The insights gleaned from the study extend globally, as it serves as a concrete knowledge base to understand potential barriers to successful dry port projects.

目的我们确定了陆港项目中最常见的风险因素,并将其进一步归纳为多个维度。我们从文献中确定了 44 个风险因素,并通过探索性因素分析 (EFA) 将其汇总为 8 个主要风险维度。研究结果 "成本 "成为影响陆港项目成功与否的最重要风险,其次是 "位置"、"可达性"、"基础设施 "和 "运营",这些风险的排名也很靠前。通过将关键风险因素归纳为不同的维度,我们为有效的风险评估和管理制定了一个结构化框架。从本研究中获得的启示可推广到全球,因为它是了解成功陆港项目潜在障碍的具体知识基础。
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引用次数: 0
Renewable energy options for seaport cargo terminals with application to mega port Singapore 应用于新加坡特大港口的海港货运码头可再生能源方案
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-12-2023-0083
Wei Yim Yap, Theo Notteboom

Purpose

This paper reviews and analyses renewable energy options, namely underground thermal, solar, wind and marine wave energy, in seaport cargo terminal operations.

Design/methodology/approach

Four renewable energy options that are deployed or tested in different ports around the world are qualitatively examined for their overall implementation potential and characteristics, and their cost and benefits. An application to the port of Singapore is discussed.

Findings

Geophysical conditions are key criteria in assessing renewable energy options. In the case of Singapore, solar power is the only suitable renewable energy option.

Research limitations/implications

Being a capital-intensive establishment with high intensities of cargo operations, seaports usually involve a high level of energy consumption. The study of renewable energy options contributes to seaport sustainability.

Practical implications

A key recommendation is to implement a smart energy management system that enables the mixed use of renewable energy to match energy demand and supply optimally and achieve higher energy efficiency.

Originality/value

The use of renewable energy as an eco-friendlier energy source is underway in various ports. However, there is almost no literature that analyses and compares various renewable energy options potentially suitable for cargo terminal operations in ports. This paper narrows the knowledge gaps.

本文回顾并分析了海港货运码头运营中的可再生能源选择,即地下热能、太阳能、风能和海浪能。设计/方法/途径定性研究了在全球不同港口部署或测试的四种可再生能源选择的总体实施潜力和特点,以及其成本和效益。结果地球物理条件是评估可再生能源方案的关键标准。就新加坡而言,太阳能是唯一合适的可再生能源选择。研究局限性/意义海港是一个资本密集型机构,货物作业强度高,通常涉及大量能源消耗。对可再生能源方案的研究有助于实现海港的可持续发展。实用意义一项重要建议是实施智能能源管理系统,使可再生能源的混合使用与能源需求和供应达到最佳匹配,并实现更高的能源效率。然而,几乎没有文献分析和比较各种可能适用于港口货运码头运营的可再生能源方案。本文缩小了这方面的知识差距。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between self-efficacy and emotional burnout levels of seafarers: the role of individual alienation – the case of Turkey 海员自我效能感与情感倦怠水平之间的关系:个体疏离的作用--以土耳其为例
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-08-2023-0059
Fetullah Battal, İbrahim Durmuş, Ertuğrul Çınar

Purpose

The study aims to examine the factors that may affect the burnout levels of ship workers.

Design/methodology/approach

The scope of the research consists of seafarers on ships docking at the ports of Zonguldak, Karadeniz Eregli, Eren and Filyos in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The sample consists of officers, engineers, dynamic position operators, electricians, boatswains, able seamans, pumpmans and stewards working on ships. In this respect, a random questionnaire was used in the research method and a questionnaire was sent to 400 of these employees, representing the main sample, and 263 of them fully answered the online questionnaire.

Findings

As a result of the research, first of all, it is seen that the increase in the self-efficacy of the seafarers decreases their emotional burnout levels. In the second step, the strong self-efficacy of the seafarers reduced the level of individual alienation. In the third step, the increase in the individual alienation of the ship workers also caused an increase in the levels of emotional exhaustion.

Originality/value

As a result, it has been seen that there is a partial mediating role of individual alienation in the relationship between the self-efficacy of the seafarers and their emotional exhaustion. In other words, high self-efficacy is not the only reason for the decrease in emotional burnout levels among seafarers. At the same time, self-efficacy has an effect on the individual alienation levels of seafarers.

研究范围包括停靠在土耳其西黑海地区 Zonguldak、Karadeniz Eregli、Eren 和 Filyos 港口的船舶上的海员。样本包括在船上工作的高级船员、轮机员、动态位置操作员、电工、船工、能干海员、泵工和乘务员。在这方面,研究方法采用了随机问卷调查法,向其中代表主要样本的 400 名员工发送了问卷,其中 263 人完整地回答了在线问卷。第二步,海员自我效能感的增强降低了个体疏离感的水平。原创性/价值 由此可见,个体疏离感在海员自我效能感和情感衰竭之间存在部分中介作用。换句话说,高自我效能感并不是海员情绪倦怠水平降低的唯一原因。同时,自我效能感对海员的个体疏离程度也有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Digital wind of changes: navigating competitiveness in the maritime sector through the transformation in human resource development 数字变革之风:通过人力资源开发转型提高海事部门的竞争力
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-11-2023-0079
Yuthana Autsadee, Jagan Jeevan, Nurul Haqimin Mohd Salleh, Mohamad Rosni Othman

Purpose

The maritime industry, a linchpin of global trade, has embarked on a transformative journey catalysed by the relentless advance of digitalisation. There is a discernible gap in the literature concerning the specific consequences of digitalisation within the maritime sector. This research aims to examine the current body of literature on the influence of digitalisation in human resource development (HRD) on the competitive advantage of organisations and its potential within the maritime industry.

Design/methodology/approach

This research paper conducts a comprehensive bibliometric analysis.

Findings

The findings of this research explore the literature landscape encompassing digitalisation in HRD, its influence on HR operations, learning and development, performance management, employee experience, and strategic alignment within maritime organisations.

Originality/value

This research provides valuable recommendations for maritime organisations and HRD practitioners seeking to leverage digitalisation to gain a competitive edge. Thus, the maritime industry can adopt digital HRD practices to streamline operations, improve performance, and align HR strategies with broader organisational goals.

目的海运业是全球贸易的关键,在数字化的无情推动下,海运业开始了转型之旅。在有关海事领域数字化具体影响的文献中存在明显的空白。本研究旨在研究当前有关人力资源开发(HRD)中的数字化对组织竞争优势的影响及其在海事行业中的潜力的文献。研究结果本研究结果探讨了人力资源开发中的数字化及其对海事组织中的人力资源运营、学习与发展、绩效管理、员工体验和战略调整的影响等方面的文献情况。原创性/价值本研究为寻求利用数字化获得竞争优势的海事组织和人力资源开发从业人员提供了宝贵的建议。因此,海运业可以采用数字化人力资源开发实践来简化运营、提高绩效,并使人力资源战略与更广泛的组织目标保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of constraints for investment in NOx emission technologies: case study on Greek bulk carrier owners 氮氧化物排放技术投资制约因素评估:希腊散货船船东案例研究
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-01-2024-0007
Hristos Karahalios

Purpose

The maritime industry is the transport mode that contributes most to air pollution. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) identified the reduction of air pollution by ships as a crucial issue. Since 1 January 2020, ships have had to adopt strategies and new technologies to eliminate air pollution. However, ship compliance with nitrate oxide (NOx) emission restrictions is more challenging. This paper aims to identify ship owners' challenges in investing in new technologies.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applied a hybrid methodology combining a survey, a balanced scorecard and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) to identify and evaluate constraints and weights in investment decision-making for NOx technologies. A survey was carried out to validate constraints.

Findings

A survey was carried out, representing 5.1% of Greek-owned ships by deadweight capacity. The findings provide a weighted list of seven crucial technical and economic constraints faced by ship operators. The constraints vary from ship retrofit expenditure to crew training and waste management. Additionally, NOx emission technologies were compared. It was found that liquefied natural gas is the preferred investment option for the survey participants compared with selective catalytic reduction, exhaust gas recirculation and batteries.

Originality/value

Several studies have dealt with the individual technical feasibility of NOx reduction technologies. However, apart from technical feasibility for a shipowner, the selection of a NOx technology has several managerial and safety risks. Therefore, the originality of this paper is to reveal those constraints that have a higher weight on ship owners. With this cost-benefit approach, investment challenges for ship operators are revealed. Policymakers can benefit from the results of the employed methodology.

目的 海运业是造成空气污染最严重的运输方式。国际海事组织(IMO)将减少船舶造成的空气污染视为一个关键问题。自 2020 年 1 月 1 日起,船舶必须采用消除空气污染的战略和新技术。然而,船舶遵守硝酸盐氧化物(NOx)排放限制更具挑战性。本文旨在确定船东在投资新技术时面临的挑战。本文采用了一种混合方法,将调查、平衡计分卡和模糊分析层次过程(F-AHP)相结合,以确定和评估氮氧化物技术投资决策中的限制因素和权重。为了验证制约因素,还进行了一项调查。调查结果提供了一份加权清单,列出了船舶运营商面临的七项关键技术和经济制约因素。这些制约因素从船舶改造支出到船员培训和废物管理不等。此外,还对氮氧化物排放技术进行了比较。结果发现,与选择性催化还原法、废气再循环法和电池相比,液化天然气是调查参与者的首选投资方案。 原创性/价值多项研究涉及氮氧化物减排技术的个别技术可行性。然而,对于船东来说,除了技术可行性之外,选择氮氧化物技术还存在一些管理和安全风险。因此,本文的独创性在于揭示那些对船东影响较大的限制因素。通过这种成本效益方法,揭示了船舶运营商面临的投资挑战。政策制定者可以从所采用方法的结果中获益。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of management functions on the productivity of yard cargo handling equipment in container terminals 管理职能对集装箱码头堆场货物装卸设备生产率的影响
IF 3 Q3 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1108/mabr-06-2023-0046
Luong Hai Nguyen

Purpose

This empirical study explores the profound impact of management functions on the productivity of yard cargo handling equipment within container terminals.

Design/methodology/approach

By closely examining crucial management aspects such as planning, organizing, leading, and controlling, a comprehensive managerial behavior framework was developed through focus group studies (FGS) and focal interviews. These qualitative methods were complemented by the distribution of questionnaires to practitioners in Vietnam. To validate the concept of management functions and analyze their influence on effective management practices for equipment efficiency, a structural equation model (SEM) technique was employed using partial least-squares estimation (PLS).

Findings

The findings of this study demonstrate that planning (PL), organizing (OR), and controlling (CT) significantly contribute to the productivity of yard cargo handling equipment, while leading (LD) does not exhibit a direct positive impact.

Originality/value

Theoretically, this study contributes by providing clarity to the definition, purpose, and value of management functions in the field of cargo handling equipment management. Furthermore, these research findings offer valuable insights to terminal operators and managers, enabling them to optimize their management strategies and enhance productivity levels, ultimately resulting in improved operational outcomes.

本实证研究探讨了管理职能对集装箱码头堆场货物装卸设备生产率的深远影响。设计/方法/途径通过对计划、组织、领导和控制等关键管理环节进行仔细研究,并通过焦点小组研究(FGS)和焦点访谈建立了一个全面的管理行为框架。在采用这些定性方法的同时,还向越南的从业人员发放了调查问卷。为了验证管理职能的概念并分析其对提高设备效率的有效管理实践的影响,采用了偏最小二乘估计(PLS)的结构方程模型(SEM)技术。研究结果本研究的结果表明,计划(PL)、组织(OR)和控制(CT)对堆场货物装卸设备的生产率有显著的促进作用,而领导(LD)则没有表现出直接的积极影响。此外,这些研究成果为码头运营商和管理者提供了宝贵的见解,使他们能够优化管理策略,提高生产力水平,最终改善运营成果。
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引用次数: 0
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Maritime Business Review
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