欧洲绿色协议的地缘政治

Mark Leonard, J. Pisani-Ferry, J. Shapiro, S. Tagliapietra, Guntram Wolf
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引用次数: 41

摘要

《欧洲绿色协议》是一项到2050年使欧盟经济脱碳的计划,它将彻底改变欧盟的能源体系,深刻改变经济,并激发对抗气候变化的努力。但该计划也将产生深远的地缘政治影响。绿色协议将通过其对欧盟能源平衡和全球市场的影响来影响地缘政治;欧盟周边的石油和天然气生产国;欧洲能源安全;在全球贸易格局方面,特别是通过碳边界调整机制。至少其中一些变化可能对伙伴国产生不利影响。欧盟需要意识到其国内决策在国外造成的后果。它应该准备好帮助管理《欧洲绿色协议》的地缘政治方面。与俄罗斯和阿尔及利亚等重要邻国以及包括美国、中国和沙特阿拉伯在内的全球参与者的关系是这一努力的核心,这一努力可以围绕七个行动进行:1)帮助邻近的石油和天然气出口国管理欧洲绿色协议的影响。欧盟应与这些国家合作,促进其经济多元化,包括可再生能源和未来可出口到欧洲的绿色氢;2)提高关键原材料供应的安全性,限制对中国的依赖。基本措施包括使供应更加多样化、增加回收量和替代关键材料;3)与美国和其他伙伴合作,建立一个“气候俱乐部”,其成员将采用类似的碳边界调整措施。欢迎包括中国在内的所有国家加入,前提是它们承诺遵守俱乐部的目标和规则;4)成为能源转型的全球标准制定者,特别是在氢能和绿色债券方面。要求遵守严格的环境法规作为进入欧盟市场的条件,将有力地鼓励所有国家走向绿色;5)通过调动欧盟预算、欧盟复苏和韧性基金以及欧盟发展政策,使《欧洲绿色协议》国际化;6)促进减缓气候变化的全球联盟,例如通过一个全球永久冻土联盟,为遏制永久冻土融化的措施提供资金;7)推动建立气候行动新经济学全球平台,分享经验教训和最佳做法。
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The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions. The Green Deal will affect geopolitics through its impact on the EU energy balance and global markets; on oil and gas-producing countries in the EU neighbourhood; on European energy security; and on global trade patterns, notably via the carbon border adjustment mechanism. At least some of these changes are likely to impact partner countries adversely. The EU needs to wake up to the consequences abroad of its domestic decisions. It should prepare to help manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal. Relationships with important neighbourhood countries such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, are central to this effort, which can be structured around seven actions: 1) Help neighbouring oil and gas-exporting countries manage the repercussions of the European Green Deal. The EU should engage with these countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could in the future be exported to Europe; 2) Improve the security of critical raw materials supply and limit dependence, first and foremost on China. Essential measures include greater supply diversification, increased recycling volumes and substitution of critical materials; 3) Work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members will apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. All countries, including China, would be welcome to join if they commit to abide by the club's objectives and rules; 4) Become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. Requiring compliance with strict environmental regulations as a condition to access the EU market will be strong encouragement to go green for all countries; 5) Internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund, and EU development policy; 6) Promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, for example through a global coalition for the permafrost, which would fund measures to contain the permafrost thaw; 7) Promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action to share lessons learned and best practices.
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来源期刊
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期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
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