两个多宿主热带稀树草原系统中双季炭疽爆发动态的环境驱动因素

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2022-04-08 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1526
Yen-Hua Huang, Kyrre Kausrud, Ayesha Hassim, Sunday O. Ochai, O. Louis van Schalkwyk, Edgar H. Dekker, Alexander Buyantuev, Claudine C. Cloete, J. Werner Kilian, John K. E. Mfune, Pauline L. Kamath, Henriette van Heerden, Wendy C. Turner
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引用次数: 5

摘要

环境因素是驱动传染病动态的共同力量。我们比较了非洲南部两个多宿主系统中炭疽感染的年际和季节模式:纳米比亚的埃托沙国家公园和南非的克鲁格国家公园。利用每个系统几十年的死亡率数据,我们评估了炭疽动力学背后可能的传播机制,通过经验动力学建模检验了(1)种内和种间的时间病例相关性和(2)炭疽死亡率与环境因素(特别是降雨和归一化植被指数(NDVI))之间的关联。克鲁格的炭疽病例在病例数上有很大的年际变化,大规模爆发似乎遵循大约十年的周期。相比之下,埃托沙的疫情规模较小,每年发生一次。在埃托沙,尽管平原斑马(Equus quagga)变得相对更占优势,但通常受影响的宿主物种几十年来一直保持不变。在克鲁格,主要寄主物种的更替发生在20世纪90年代之后,之前的优势寄主物种大kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros)被黑斑羚(Aepyceros melampus)所取代。在这两个公园里,炭疽感染出现了两个季节性高峰,每个物种在一年中只有一个高峰。斑马、羚羊(Antidorcas marsupialis)、牛羚(Connochaetes taurinus)和黑斑羚病例在雨季最多,而大象(Loxodonta africana)、kudu和水牛(Syncerus caffer)病例在旱季最多。对于两个公园共有的常见寄主物种,两个系统的炭疽死亡率在同一季节达到高峰。在同一季节出现病例高峰的宿主物种中,炭疽热死亡大多是同步的,这意味着类似的传播机制或共同的接触源。在季节之间,一个物种的暴发可能导致下一季节另一物种出现更多病例。在埃托沙,较高的植被绿化与斑马和跳羚的炭疽死亡率有关,而在克鲁格,大象的炭疽死亡率较低。这些结果表明,宿主对变化的环境条件的行为反应可能影响炭疽传播风险,传播机制的差异导致多宿主季节性暴发。本研究揭示了两个热带稀树草原系统中炭疽热的动态和潜在环境驱动因素,为更好地理解驱动季节性动态和不同地点之间爆发变化的因素提供了依据。
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Environmental drivers of biseasonal anthrax outbreak dynamics in two multihost savanna systems

Environmental factors are common forces driving infectious disease dynamics. We compared interannual and seasonal patterns of anthrax infections in two multihost systems in southern Africa: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Using several decades of mortality data from each system, we assessed possible transmission mechanisms behind anthrax dynamics, examining (1) within- and between-species temporal case correlations and (2) associations between anthrax mortalities and environmental factors, specifically rainfall and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), with empirical dynamic modeling. Anthrax cases in Kruger had wide interannual variation in case numbers, and large outbreaks seemed to follow a roughly decadal cycle. In contrast, outbreaks in Etosha were smaller in magnitude and occurred annually. In Etosha, the host species commonly affected remained consistent over several decades, although plains zebra (Equus quagga) became relatively more dominant. In Kruger, turnover of the main host species occurred after the 1990s, where the previously dominant host species, greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), was replaced by impala (Aepyceros melampus). In both parks, anthrax infections showed two seasonal peaks, with each species having only one peak in a year. Zebra, springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis), wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), and impala cases peaked in wet seasons, while elephant (Loxodonta africana), kudu, and buffalo (Syncerus caffer) cases peaked in dry seasons. For common host species shared between the two parks, anthrax mortalities peaked in the same season in both systems. Among host species with cases peaking in the same season, anthrax mortalities were mostly synchronized, which implies similar transmission mechanisms or shared sources of exposure. Between seasons, outbreaks in one species may contribute to more cases in another species in the following season. Higher vegetation greenness was associated with more zebra and springbok anthrax mortalities in Etosha but fewer elephant cases in Kruger. These results suggest that host behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions may affect anthrax transmission risk, with differences in transmission mechanisms leading to multihost biseasonal outbreaks. This study reveals the dynamics and potential environmental drivers of anthrax in two savanna systems, providing a better understanding of factors driving biseasonal dynamics and outbreak variation among locations.

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来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
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