Indigenous peoples' displacement and jaguar survival in a warming planet

Non-technical summary Climate change threatens tropical forests, ecosystem services, and indigenous peoples. The effects of climate change will force the San Blas Island communities of the indigenous Guna people to relocate to one of the most extensive, intact forests in Panama. In this paper, we argue that the impacts of climate change, and the proposed resettlement, will synergistically affect the jaguar. As apex predators, jaguars are sensitive to landscape change and require intact forests with ample prey to survive. Proactively planning for the intrinsically related issues of climate change, human displacement, and jaguar conservation is a complex but essential management task. Technical summary Tropical rainforest, coastal, and island communities are on the front line of increasing temperatures and sea-level rise associated with climate change. Future impacts on the interconnectedness of biological and cultural diversity (biocultural heritage) remain unknown. We review the interplay between the impacts of climate change and the displacement of the indigenous Guna people from the San Blas Islands, the relocation back to their mainland territory, and the implications for jaguar persistence. We highlight one of the most significant challenges to using resettlement as an adaptive strategy to climate change, securing a location where the Guna livelihoods, traditions, and culture may continue without significant change while protecting ecosystem services (e.g. biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water). We posit that developing management plans that strive to meet social needs without sacrificing environmental principles will meet these objectives. Social media summary A biocultural approach increases adaptive capacity for ecological and human social systems threatened by climate change.