金砖国家与可持续发展伙伴关系:与最不发达国家的贸易前景

A. Morozkina, V. Skryabina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

非正式的金砖国家集团(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)正积极致力于解决最尖锐的全球问题。这就是为什么金砖国家领导人峰会上实施可持续发展目标的机会是一个迫切需要研究的主题。本文讨论了最不发达国家在与金砖国家相互贸易的框架下实现可持续发展目标17.11的前景。与其他目标不同,可持续发展目标17.11预计将在2020年实现,但世界贸易组织(WTO)对2018年的估计表明,进展太慢。在2020年国际贸易因经济停摆而大幅下降的背景下,实现这一目标显得尤为重要。本文描述了金砖国家目前落实可持续发展目标的情况。对最不发达国家与金砖国家之间相互贸易的总体分析表明,最不发达国家在与金砖国家的贸易中参与度较低。这项研究的方法包括计算两个贸易指数和确定新的最不发达国家群。计算出口倾向指数和贸易强度指数,以确定最有希望增加对金砖国家出口的国家。作者选择了15个与金砖国家(安哥拉、刚果民主共和国、莫桑比克、孟加拉国、几内亚、毛里塔尼亚、马里、几内亚比绍、尼泊尔、坦桑尼亚、赞比亚、不丹、莱索托、马拉维和所罗门群岛)有贸易发展前景的最不发达国家。在34个其他最不发达国家中,作者根据其经济结构,包括官方发展援助(ODA)和个人汇款在其经济中所起的作用,确定了五个集群。分组使金砖国家能够向最不发达国家提供有针对性的支持,通过对每个经济体最有效的机制增加其出口潜力。
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BRICS and Partnerships for Sustainable Development: Prospects for Trade with Least Developed Countries
The informal BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is actively working to solve the most acute global problems. This is why opportunities for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) at BRICS summits is a topic for urgent research. This article discusses the prospects for achieving SDG 17.11 by the least developed countries (LDCs) in the framework of mutual trade with BRICS. SDG 17.11, unlike other goals, was expected to be achieved in 2020, but World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates for 2018 showed that progress was too slow. Against the sharp drop in international trade in 2020 due to economic shutdowns, the implementation of this goal is especially high on the agenda. This article describes the current implementation of the SDG by BRICS. A general analysis of mutual trade between LDCs and BRICS shows the low involvement of least developed countries in trade with BRICS. The methodology for the study involves computations of two trade indices and the identification of new clusters of LDCs. The export propensity index and trade intensity index are calculated in order to identify the countries with the most promise to increase exports to BRICS. The authors selected 15 LDCs with prospects for trade development with BRICS – Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Guinea, Mauritania, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Nepal, Tanzania, Zambia, Bhutan, Lesotho, Malawi and Solomon Islands. Among 34 other LDCs, the authors identify five clusters based on their economic structure, including the role played in their economies by official development assistance (ODA) and personal remittances. Clustering allows BRICS to provide targeted support to LDCs in order to increase their export potential through the most effective mechanisms for each economy.
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期刊介绍: The journal mission is to disseminate Russian and international research in global governance, international cooperation on a wide range of social and economic policies; as well as to create a professional framework for discussion of trends and prognoses in these areas. International Organisations Research Journal publishes academic and analytical papers of Russian and international authors on activities of international multilateral institutions: G8, G20, BRICS, OECD, the World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN, and alliances: European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and others. Analytical and research papers on international cooperation in higher education, trends in higher education developments at the national, regional and global levels are welcomed for reviewing and publication. The journal is aimed at researchers, analysts, practitioners in international affairs and world economics and at a wide audience interested in political issues of international affairs and global development. IORJ supports publications of graduate and postgraduate students, young researchers in Russia and abroad. All IORJ publications are peer-reviewed.
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