气候变化减弱了干扰间隔对捕蝇草自然种群生长速率的影响

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2022-04-29 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1528
Allison M. Louthan, Melina Keighron, Elsita Kiekebusch, Heather Cayton, Adam Terando, William F. Morris
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引用次数: 1

摘要

干扰对生物体产生积极和消极的影响;这些影响在强度和时间上各不相同。干扰间隔(即干扰之间的时间长度)对种群增长的影响将取决于干扰的正面和负面影响的时间和强度。气候变化可以改变这些正、负效应的相对强度,导致最优扰动区间(种群增长率最高的扰动区间)的改变和种群增长率对扰动区间的敏感性的变化。虽然我们知道气候可能会改变某些系统中干扰的影响,但我们对干扰的哪些影响以及在不断变化的气候中哪些生命速率可能导致对干扰间隔的改变响应的了解甚少。我们对经历过自然和人为火灾的捕蝇草Dionaea muscipula自然种群进行了人口统计监测,并结合过去和未来的现实气候预测,构建了气候和火灾驱动的整体预测模型(IPMs)。我们利用这些ipm比较了在过去和未来气候条件下,火灾恢复间隔(FRI)对人口增长率的影响。为了剖析驱动FRI响应的机制,我们利用火灾效应(灰添加、邻居移除)和意外火灾的实验操作得来的人口统计数据构建ipm。结果表明,在过去的气候条件下,10年的FRI最适宜,而在未来的气候条件下,更长的FRI(12年)最适宜。此外,与最优FRI的偏差在过去气候中显著降低了人口增长率,但在未来气候中这种降低是微弱的(未来减去过去的敏感性= 0.006,95% CI[0.002, 0.011])。最后,我们的实验工作表明,火灾效应在一定程度上是由火灾后立即清除竞争对手和添加灰的积极加性效应驱动的;对于一个种群,这两种处理都显著提高了种群的生长率。我们的工作表明,气候变化可以改变种群对干扰的反应,强调在预测未来人口增长和地理分布时需要考虑多种非生物驱动因素的相互作用。
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Climate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap

Disturbances elicit both positive and negative effects on organisms; these effects vary in their strength and their timing. Effects of disturbance interval (i.e., the length of time between disturbances) on population growth will depend on both the timing and strength of positive and negative effects of disturbances. Climate change can modify the relative strengths of these positive and negative effects, leading to altered optimal disturbance intervals (the disturbance interval at which population growth rate is highest) and changes in the sensitivity of population growth rate to disturbance interval. While we know that climate may alter impacts of disturbance in some systems, we have a poor understanding of which effects of disturbance and which vital rates might drive an altered response to disturbance interval in a changing climate. We use demographic monitoring of natural populations of Dionaea muscipula, the Venus flytrap, that have experienced natural and managed fires, combined with realistic past and future climate projections, to construct climate- and fire-driven integral projection models (IPMs). We use these IPMs to compare the effect of fire return interval (FRI) on population growth rate in past and future climates. To dissect the mechanisms driving FRI response, we then construct IPMs with demographic data from an experimental manipulation of fire effects (ash addition, neighbor removal) and an accidental fire. Our results show that an FRI of 10 years is optimal for D. muscipula in past climate conditions, but a longer FRI (12 years) is optimal in future climate conditions. Further, deviations from optimal FRI reduce population growth rate dramatically in the past climate, but this reduction is muted in a future climate (future minus past sensitivity = 0.006, 95% CI [0.002, 0.011]). Finally, our experimental work suggests that fire effects are driven in part by positive, additive effects of competitor removal and ash addition immediately following a fire; for one population, both these treatments significantly increased population growth rate. Our work suggests that climate change can alter the response of populations to disturbance, highlighting the need to consider the interacting effects of multiple abiotic drivers when projecting future population growth and geographical distributions.

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来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
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