{"title":"基于系统动力学模拟的城市水资源承载力研究","authors":"Xing Chen, Qin Xu, Jing Cai","doi":"10.2166/nh.2023.101","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The relationship between water resources and the social economy has become a restricting factor for the sustainable development of cities around the world. Based on the urban development demand and water resources condition of Linhai City in eastern China, which has the fastest economic growth and population boom, the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity was established to analyze the interaction between society, economy and water resources. According to the different development emphases, six different modes of water resource utilization were designed. Taking total population, GDP, industrial output value, tertiary industry output value, water consumption, water supply and sewage discharge as the measurement indexes, the research predicted the development status of water resources carrying capacity of Linhai City from 2015 to 2030 under different development modes. Through the simulation results, it is found that the water-saving measures can reduce the gap between water supply and demand only in a short term. In the long run, the adjustment of industrial structure can improve the water resources carrying capacity and simultaneously promote the economy. In addition, increasing the water income sources as well as strengthening sewage treatment are also necessary to balance the water supply and demand.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Research on the urban water resources carrying capacity by using system dynamics simulation\",\"authors\":\"Xing Chen, Qin Xu, Jing Cai\",\"doi\":\"10.2166/nh.2023.101\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n The relationship between water resources and the social economy has become a restricting factor for the sustainable development of cities around the world. Based on the urban development demand and water resources condition of Linhai City in eastern China, which has the fastest economic growth and population boom, the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity was established to analyze the interaction between society, economy and water resources. According to the different development emphases, six different modes of water resource utilization were designed. Taking total population, GDP, industrial output value, tertiary industry output value, water consumption, water supply and sewage discharge as the measurement indexes, the research predicted the development status of water resources carrying capacity of Linhai City from 2015 to 2030 under different development modes. Through the simulation results, it is found that the water-saving measures can reduce the gap between water supply and demand only in a short term. In the long run, the adjustment of industrial structure can improve the water resources carrying capacity and simultaneously promote the economy. In addition, increasing the water income sources as well as strengthening sewage treatment are also necessary to balance the water supply and demand.\",\"PeriodicalId\":55040,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.101\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Environmental Science\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.101","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
Research on the urban water resources carrying capacity by using system dynamics simulation
The relationship between water resources and the social economy has become a restricting factor for the sustainable development of cities around the world. Based on the urban development demand and water resources condition of Linhai City in eastern China, which has the fastest economic growth and population boom, the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity was established to analyze the interaction between society, economy and water resources. According to the different development emphases, six different modes of water resource utilization were designed. Taking total population, GDP, industrial output value, tertiary industry output value, water consumption, water supply and sewage discharge as the measurement indexes, the research predicted the development status of water resources carrying capacity of Linhai City from 2015 to 2030 under different development modes. Through the simulation results, it is found that the water-saving measures can reduce the gap between water supply and demand only in a short term. In the long run, the adjustment of industrial structure can improve the water resources carrying capacity and simultaneously promote the economy. In addition, increasing the water income sources as well as strengthening sewage treatment are also necessary to balance the water supply and demand.
期刊介绍:
Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.