肯尼亚农牧农业系统气候适宜性和可用性的空间变化(1980-2020年)

IF 3.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Outlook on Agriculture Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI:10.1177/00307270231176577
Ted J. Lawrence, J. Vilbig, G. Kangogo, E. Fèvre, S. Deem, I. Gluecks, V. Sagan, E. Shacham
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引用次数: 1

摘要

生产性全球农业正面临各种压力,特别是气候变化和人口增长。这种影响在东非尤为明显,那里的作物生产主要靠雨水灌溉,人口增长率居世界前列。我们进行这项研究的目的是了解40年来气候变化和人口增长如何影响肯尼亚农牧区的规模。在研究期间,所有主要作物的气候适宜地区减少了28%。气候适宜的初级作物面积在高产县增加了3%,在中等产量县减少了25%,在低产县减少了62%。在研究期间,牧场区的气候适宜区减少了13%,奶牛场区减少了21%,混合作物和牧场区减少了24%,混合农作物和奶牛场区增加了28%,而畜牧业的气候适宜区域增加了12%。在研究期间,肯尼亚各地的人口增加了两倍多,而相对于气候适宜的作物种植区的人口增长了近四倍,相对于气候适合的畜牧业种植区的人数增长了近三倍。在高产县,人口相对于可用气候适宜的作物种植区增加了一倍多,在高产县增加了四倍多,而在低产县增加了近15倍。研究气候变化和人口增长对肯尼亚农业部门的累积影响,有助于制定实现联合国可持续发展目标的政策和战略。
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Spatial changes to climatic suitability and availability of agropastoral farming systems across Kenya (1980–2020)
Productive global agriculture is under a convergence of pressures, and particularly climate change and population growth. The impact is especially stark in East Africa where crop production is mostly rain-fed and population growth rates are among the highest in the world. Our objective for this study was to understand how climate change and population growth have impacted the size of agropastoral areas across Kenya over 40 years. Climate-suitable areas for all primary crops decreased 28% over the study period. Climate-suitable areas for primary crops increased 3% in highly productive counties, decreased 25% in moderately productive counties, and decreased 62% in low productive counties. Climate-suitable areas over the study period decreased 13% for ranching areas, 21% for dairying areas, 24% for mixed crop and ranching areas, and 28% for mixed crop and dairying areas, while climate-suitable areas for pastoralism increased 12%. Population across Kenya more than tripled over the study period, while population relative to climate-suitable areas for crops increased nearly fourfold, and population relative to climate-suitable areas for pastoralism nearly tripled. Population relative to available climate-suitable areas for crops more than doubled in highly productive counties, increased more than four-fold in moderately productive counties, and was nearly 15 times higher in low productive counties. Examining the cumulative effects of climate change and population growth on agricultural sectors across Kenya can help to develop policies and strategies to reach the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
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来源期刊
Outlook on Agriculture
Outlook on Agriculture 农林科学-农业综合
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
13.30%
发文量
38
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Outlook on Agriculture is a peer reviewed journal, published quarterly, which welcomes original research papers, research notes, invited reviews and commentary for an international and interdisciplinary readership. Special attention is paid to agricultural policy, international trade in the agricultural sector, strategic developments in food production, the links between agricultural systems and food security, the role of agriculture in social and economic development, agriculture in developing countries and environmental issues, including natural resources for agriculture and climate impacts.
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