Endogenous hybridity: regime change in Venezuela (1998–2020)

ABSTRACT The political movement led by President Hugo Chávez Frías (1998–2013) and his successor, President Nicolás Maduro (2013–present), created an authoritarian regime in Venezuela. We explore two alternative interpretations. The first is that the regime underwent a series of incremental transitions along an initially democratic but progressively more authoritarian trajectory, largely as a result of pressures from its environment. The alternative interpretation is that authoritarianism was inherent in the regime’s origin and composition and emerged endogenously, albeit gradually. Using a theoretical framework that builds on the work of Robert Dahl, Guillermo O’Donnell, Juan Linz, and Alfred Stepan, we develop indicators of democracy and authoritarianism and trace the evolution of the regime through three periods. We conclude that endogenous and exogenous forces interacted and were mutually reinforcing across these periods, repeatedly foreclosing possibilities for democratization, but authoritarian tendencies were present from the start and reflected in critical political decisions by regime actors involving the design of new institutions.