Supply contracts for critical and strategic materials of high volatility and their ramifications for supply chains

Abstract For critical and strategic materials such as a rare earth element or crude oil, we study a supply chain consisting of an intermediary/producer facing a highly volatile market to its customers and a local supplier at a different region subject to a fixed term supply contract. By viewing the opportunity to sign this contract as a real option, we construct a supply contract model and analytically derive the optimal contract-signing threshold price from the intermediary/producer perspective. Based on this threshold, we show how the relationship among the threshold price, lead time, and contract duration results in a classification of the supply chain’s preferences for lead time length, and to concrete guidelines for using the lead time and contract duration as tradable negotiation tools for supply chain contracts.