实现无负排放的碳预算的生态宏观经济评估

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Global Sustainability Pub Date : 2022-03-04 DOI:10.1017/sus.2022.2
Martin R. Sers
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引用次数: 2

摘要

非技术性总结本文通过探索非常规经济情景(稳态和衰退)并假设不使用负排放,扩大了综合评估模型中通常探索的情景范围。使用气候和经济的数学模型表明,在所有增长假设下,假设最终用途的快速电气化和可再生能源投资的立即扩大,将累计排放量保持在1.5度的碳预算内是可能的。在一切照旧的投资假设下,没有任何经济轨迹与符合1.5度碳预算的减排相一致。技术摘要本文提出了一个库存流一致性投入产出综合评估模型,旨在探索在碳预算约束下向可再生能源转型同时实现最终用途电气化的双重动力。与大多数传统的综合评估模型分析不同,本文没有假设二氧化碳去除的部署,并考察了替代经济途径(稳定状态和衰退)在实现1.5°C一致排放途径方面可能发挥的作用。该模型基于生命周期能源投资回报方案进行内部校准,并通过动态输入-输出公式获取能源转型动态。对于成功的排放途径,可再生能源投资占国内生产总值的比例达到5%。就新的资本要求和投资而言,与稳态和增长轨迹相比,衰退轨迹的过渡要求更低。社交媒体摘要我们探讨了稳态和衰退经济轨迹在与1.5度世界一致的减排中可能发挥的作用。。
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Ecological macroeconomic assessment of meeting a carbon budget without negative emissions
Non-technical summary This paper expands the range of scenarios usually explored in integrated assessment models by exploring unconventional economic scenarios (steady-state and degrowth) and assuming no use of negative emissions. It is shown, using a mathematical model of climate and economy, that keeping cumulative emissions within the 1.5 degree carbon budget is possible under all growth assumptions, assuming a rapid electrification of end use and an immediate upscaling of renewable energy investments. Under business-as-usual investment assumptions no economic trajectory corresponds with emissions reductions consistent with the 1.5 degree carbon budget. Technical summary This paper presents a stock-flow consistent input–output integrated assessment model designed to explore the dual dynamics of transitioning to renewable energy while electrifying end use subject a carbon budget constraint. Unlike the majority of conventional integrated assessment model analyses, this paper does not assume the deployment of carbon dioxide removal and examines the role that alternative economic pathways (steady-states and degrowth) may play in achieving 1.5°C consistent emissions pathways. The model is internally calibrated based on a life-cycle energy return on investment scheme and the energy transition dynamics are captured via a dynamic input–output formulation. Renewable energy investment as a fraction of gross domestic product for successful emissions pathways reaches 5%. In terms of new capital requirements and investments, degrowth trajectories impose lower transition requirements than steady-state and growth trajectories. Social media summary We explore the role that steady-state and degrowth economic trajectories may play in emissions reductions consistent with a 1.5 degree world..
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来源期刊
Global Sustainability
Global Sustainability Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
3.60%
发文量
19
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊最新文献
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