2019冠状病毒病的宏观经济影响：中期回顾*

IF 1.1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2021-09-05 DOI:10.1111/1468-0106.12372

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

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引用次数: 16

摘要

摘要本文对2019冠状病毒病疫情的宏观经济后果进行了中期评估。据估计，2020年的产出损失中值约为6.5%，预计到2021年底，这一差距将缩小到疫情前趋势的4%左右。然而，各经济体的经济损失高度分散，反映出对疫情和社会反应的不同程度。高频指标和流行病学模型对大流行演变与社会抗击策略之间的相互作用提供了一些见解，包括疫苗接种的作用。这篇文章从迄今为止的经验中吸取了教训，并讨论了未来的挑战。

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Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review*

Abstract This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre‐pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High‐frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.

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来源期刊

Pacific Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Pacific Economic Review (PER) publishes high-quality articles in all areas of economics, both the theoretical and empirical, and welcomes in particular analyses of economic issues in the Asia-Pacific area. Published five times a year from 2007, the journal is of interest to academic, government and corporate economists. The Pacific Economic Review is the official publication of the Hong Kong Economic Association and has a strong editorial team and international board of editors. As a highly acclaimed journal, the Pacific Economic Review is a source of valuable information and insight. Contributors include Nobel Laureates and leading scholars from all over the world.