考虑气候变化影响预测坦桑尼亚香蕉作物产量的时间序列和集合模型

IF 12.4 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Resources Environment and Sustainability Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.resenv.2023.100138
Sabas Patrick , Silas Mirau , Isambi Mbalawata , Judith Leo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

香蕉种植在坦桑尼亚的农业景观和粮食安全中发挥着关键作用。准确预测香蕉作物产量对于资源优化、市场稳定和知情决策至关重要,尤其是在气候变化的情况下。这项研究采用了时间序列和集合模型来预测坦桑尼亚的香蕉作物产量,为未来的生产趋势提供了重要的见解。我们使用了基于回归分析和数据探索选择的具有外源变量的季节性ARIMA(SARIMAX)、状态空间(SS)和长短期记忆(LSTM)模型。利用历史香蕉产量数据(1961–2020)和相关气候变量,我们使用加权平均法建立了一个综合模型。我们的发现强调了时间序列和集合模型在准确预测香蕉作物产量方面的潜力。统计评估指标验证了它们在捕捉时间变化和提供可靠预测方面的有效性。这项研究通过证明这些模型在坦桑尼亚的成功应用,促进了农业预测。它强调了考虑时间动态和相关因素对精确预测的重要性。政策制定者、农民和利益相关者可以利用这项研究的结果,就资源分配、市场规划和农业政策做出明智的决定。最终,我们的研究支持了坦桑尼亚的可持续香蕉生产并加强了粮食安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Time series and ensemble models to forecast banana crop yield in Tanzania, considering the effects of climate change

Banana cultivation plays a pivotal role in Tanzania’s agricultural landscape and food security. Precisely forecasting banana crop yield is essential for resource optimization, market stability, and informed policymaking, particularly in the face of climate change. This study employed time series and ensemble models to forecast banana crop yield in Tanzania, offering crucial insights into future production trends. We utilized Seasonal ARIMA with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX), State Space (SS), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, chosen based on regression analysis and data exploration. Leveraging historical banana yield data (1961–2020) and relevant climate variables, we formulated an ensemble model using a weighted average approach. Our findings underscore the potential of time series and ensemble models for accurate banana crop yield forecasting. Statistical evaluation metrics validate their effectiveness in capturing temporal variations and delivering reliable predictions. This research advances agricultural forecasting by demonstrating the successful application of these models in Tanzania. It emphasizes the importance of considering temporal dynamics and relevant factors for precise predictions. Policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders can leverage this study’s outcomes to make informed decisions on resource allocation, market planning, and agricultural policies. Ultimately, our research bolsters sustainable banana production and enhances food security in Tanzania.

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来源期刊
Resources Environment and Sustainability
Resources Environment and Sustainability Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
15.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
审稿时长
33 days
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