维多利亚

IF 0.6 4区 社会学 Q1 HISTORY Australian Journal of Politics and History Pub Date : 2023-06-25 DOI:10.1111/ajph.12921
Dr Zareh Ghazarian
{"title":"维多利亚","authors":"Dr Zareh Ghazarian","doi":"10.1111/ajph.12921","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The anticipated political highlight in Victoria was the state election that would be held on the last Saturday of November. The Daniel Andrews-led Labor Party was focusing on winning its third election in a row. Having first been elected in 2014, Labor had extended its majority in the Legislative Assembly in 2018. This election, however, would be the first in Victoria since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With lingering debates about ethics and accountability in government, as well as health and the state's economy, Victorians would be treated to a vigorous contest by the major parties.</p><p>The second half of 2022 was a very busy period for those who were following ethics and accountability in government in Victoria. On 20 July, the recommendations from Operation Watts were released. This operation was the first that was jointly undertaken by the state's Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) and the state's Ombudsman. It examined claims of branch stacking in the ALP as well as alleged cases of Labor MPs misusing public money. The report highlighted that while some actions could not be regarded as criminal offences, there were examples of behaviours that may not have aligned with community expectations (Operation Watts Special Report, July 2022).</p><p>Operation Watts resulted in 21 recommendations that aimed to strengthen integrity and accountability in the public sector, but especially in the Victorian Parliament. These included establishing a new Parliamentary Ethics Committee and Parliamentary Integrity Commissioner. Additional recommendations included reviewing the Electorate Officers Code of Conduct to forbid staffers from undertaking party-political work during hours they were employed as an electorate officer, as well as stopping MPs from employing members of their family in electoral offices. Premier Daniel Andrews announced that all recommendations would be adopted and announced that “as leader of the party and leader of our state, I take full responsibility for that conduct” (<i>The Age</i>, 20 July 2022).</p><p>Additionally, the so-called ‘red shirts’ affair, in which approximately $400,000 of state money was reportedly misused by paying electoral officers and other staff to undertake party-related campaigning in the lead-up to the 2014 election, re-appeared on the political radar (see <i>The Guardian</i>, 28 July 2022). The Ombudsman had already presented a report on these matters to the Victorian Parliament in 2018 but had been asked to investigate once more by the Legislative Council, a move that was spearheaded by former Labor minister, Adem Somyurek.</p><p>The Ombudsman also took the opportunity to restate calls for an independent investigative agency, making ethics and accountability critical issues in the political debate in Victoria.</p><p>These issues provided the opposition leader, Matthew Guy, with opportunities to attack the government. The focus, however, quickly shifted to the Liberal Party after it was reported that Mitch Catlin, Matthew Guy's chief of staff, had asked an anonymous donor to pay $100,000 to his private business. Under this arrangement, the donor would pay approximately $8,300 a month to Catlin's company (<i>The Age</i>, 2 August 2022). While a formal contract was not signed, Guy was associated with the affair as leaked emails reportedly showed Catlin asking the opposition leader to forward the proposed contract to the benefactor. While Catlin promptly resigned, the damage for the Coalition was significant. The affair diminished Guy's capacity to attack the government on matters of integrity, with commentators questioning Guy's judgment (<i>The Age</i>, 5 August 2022).</p><p>The Liberal leader was further side-tracked when details emerged of staffing changes within his office. Guy was reported to have hired a close personal friend, Nick McGowan, to be his new chief of staff (<i>The Age</i>, 8 August 2022). McGowan was also the Liberal Party's candidate for the North-Eastern Metropolitan region. The appointment seemingly led to further divisions within the party as some Liberal MPs felt “angered” by Guy's choice (<i>The Age</i>, 8 August 2022). It was also reported that additional staff members, including the director of communications, had left Guy's office following McGowan's appointment (<i>Sky News</i>, 12 August 2022). These events arguably had a negative impact on the Coalition's electoral support as they contributed to a sense that the opposition was still struggling to settle its internal structures before the formal start of the election campaign.</p><p>With just three months to go before the state election, opinion polls started to become a prominent feature of the reporting on Victorian politics. On 27 August, Newspoll released figures that showed Labor was likely to retain government as it led the Coalition 56 per cent to 44 per cent on the all-important two-party preferred measure. Moreover, 51 per cent of respondents said that Daniel Andrews would make the better premier compared to just 34 per cent for Matthew Guy. This aligned with data from Roy Morgan which reported a 60.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent two-party preferred result on 14 August.</p><p>Furthermore, the opposition's attack on issues of trust and accountability in the Labor Party was seemingly not having an impact on the public's attitude towards the government. In a poll published in <i>The Age</i> on 25 August, 42 per cent of voters said that Labor was best placed to “govern with integrity and honesty”, while just 21 per cent of voters said the same for the Coalition. This, along with other published opinion polls, indicated that the Coalition would struggle to increase its representation in the Victorian Parliament.</p><p>The government's performance in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic was publicly scrutinised when, in September, the Inspector-General for Emergency Management (IGEM) released its review of the state's emergency call performance between December 2020 and May 2022. The report found that there had been 40 “potentially adverse events” during this period concerning delays and “33 of these patients did not survive their emergencies” (IGEM Report, September 2022, 6).</p><p>The review also considered the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority (ESTA), the state's call centre for emergency services. The review found that the demands for ambulance services during the pandemic meant that ESTA struggled to answer calls quickly. The review also found that calls for ambulances increased “beyond historical highs, and emergency calls [were] queuing for completely unacceptable lengths of time – 10 minutes, 15 minutes, and longer” (IGEM Report, September 2022, p5). Premier Andrews responded to these findings by saying, “We apologise for a system that did not meet your needs, we absolutely apologise, and we appreciate just how challenging this will be for you” (<i>ABC News</i>, 6 September 2022).</p><p>This episode gave the state opposition new opportunities to criticise the government's performance in healthcare. It also provided the Liberal Party with a platform to make new announcements concerning health and hospitals. These included pledging $400 million to upgrade Maroondah Hospital to serve the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It was reported that this took the opposition's commitments on health to over $6 billion which raised questions about how these projects would be funded. Opposition leader Guy promised that these projects would be completed by diverting funds allocated to the Suburban Rail Loop to healthcare.</p><p>This followed a critical contribution on 4 September in <i>The Age</i> by former ABC Radio Melbourne morning show presenter Jon Faine arguing that power had been concentrated in the premier's office and was now “more centralised than during the peak of the Kennett regime”.</p><p>Within this context, the final weeks before the election were marked by intensive campaigning and policy promises. Service delivery was prominent in the platforms for both major parties. The Liberal Party also avoided drawing attention to law-and-order issues following the party's overemphasis of these matters in 2018. Rather, the Coalition seemingly presented a more positive policy plan which included significant spending promises.</p><p>Healthcare was a major area of focus, as would be expected in a state election. For example, Labor committed over $2 billion to building or upgrading hospitals across the state. In addition, there was a new $5,000 bonus that would be paid to recently graduated nurses and midwives who worked in the public health system for two years or more. The Coalition also focused on health and promised to reduce elective surgery waiting lists, as well as build or modernise over 25 hospitals (<i>The Guardian</i>, 25 November 2022). The Liberal Party also promised to provide dental vouchers and build the state's nursing capacity.</p><p>The cost of public transport was highlighted by both major parties. Labor sought to bring parity to V/Line and metropolitan train travel prices, while the Coalition promised to limit public transport prices to $2 a day. The major parties also promised significant spending in education. On climate change, the Coalition promised to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, compared to Labor's promise to do so by 2045 (<i>The Guardian</i>, 25 November 2022).</p><p>A major announcement by Labor was the re-establishment of the State Electricity Commission (SEC) which had previously been privatised by the Kennett Government in the mid 1990s. The SEC was a major feature of Daniel Andrews' campaign launch in Cranbourne. The premier argued that re-starting the SEC would lead to lower power costs and provide employment opportunities for thousands of Victorians. The SEC announcement was at the core of Labor's economic, environmental, and energy narrative, with the theme of the campaign labelled ‘Doing What Matters’ (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022).</p><p>Guy launched the Liberal Party's campaign in Port Melbourne on the same day as Labor (13 November) with a focus on integrity, cost of living, and service delivery. A major feature of the Liberal campaign narrative was to reduce energy costs and advance new natural gas projects to provide energy in the state (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022). At the same time, Guy acknowledged the difficulty of winning government by describing it as “like climbing Mount Everest without oxygen. Here in Victoria, [where] Labor has been in government for 19 of the past 23 years, it's like doing it in a blizzard, backwards” (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022).</p><p>At the previous election in 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Liberal Party won 21 seats, and the Nationals won six seats (for a combined total of 27 for the Coalition). The Greens also won three seats in addition to three independents. To regain government, the Coalition needed to win at least an additional 17 seats.</p><p>Following the close of polls at 6 pm on 26 November, early results showed that the Coalition's performance continued to be weak and that it would struggle to make up any ground. By the end of counting, Labor had won 56 seats (a net gain of one seat), and the Greens had also increased their representation by one (for a new total of four), while all independents had been defeated. The Coalition won 28 seats (a net gain of one seat). The Coalition result includes the by-election for Narracan which was held in January 2023 following the death of the Nationals candidate just days before the November election.</p><p>Election data from Antony Green on the ABC website provides a useful resource that charts the performance of the parties (see also Victorian Electoral Commission). While Labor won the election, it did lose some support. On a state-wide basis, the primary vote for Labor fell by 6.2 per cent to 36.6 per cent, while the Liberal primary vote fell 0.6 per cent to 29.8 per cent. The Greens' primary vote rose by 0.8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, while the National Party's primary vote fell by just 0.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Small parties also experienced an increase in support, with the Family First Party, Animal Justice Party, and Freedom Party attracting a combined primary vote of over 7 per cent.</p><p>A closer exploration of districts gives an indication of what was occurring in the Victorian electorate. In provincial seats such as Bendigo East, for example, Labor's primary vote fell by 2 per cent, which translated to a two-party preferred swing of 1.2 per cent to the Liberal candidate. This, however, was inconsequential as Labor retained the seat once preferences were distributed; the two-party preferred vote saw Labor on 60.9 per cent and the Liberal Party on 39.1 per cent. Similarly, in Bendigo West, Labor's primary vote fell by 7 per cent, but this had a minor impact on the two-party preferred result where it retained the seat with a 14 per cent margin.</p><p>Comparable results occurred in metropolitan seats that were held by Labor. In the traditionally Labor electorate of Broadmeadows, for example, Labor lost 10.8 per cent of its primary vote but held the seat with a smaller, but still very strong, margin of 15 per cent. This trend continued in so-called sand-belt seats across the south-eastern bayside electorates such as Carrum and Mordialloc where Labor's primary vote fell, but the party was in no danger of losing these electorates. These results showed that some voters were turning against Labor, but not to the extent that it would cause a change of government.</p><p>The performance of the Liberal Party in eastern-metropolitan seats suggested that voters felt it was ill-prepared to form government. For example, the new seat of Ashwood, which replaced Mount Waverley, was notionally held by Labor by just 2 per cent. Mount Waverley had been held by the Liberal Party in the past, so it was expected that if the party was to have any chance of reclaiming government it would have to win Ashwood. The result, however, was that the Liberal primary vote fell by 7 per cent. Ashwood became a safe seat for Labor with a new margin of over 6 per cent. A similar result occurred in Bayswater which had been redistributed and was held by the Liberal Party by less than 1 per cent. The election resulted in the Liberal primary vote falling by 12 per cent, and Labor winning the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 4 per cent. Labor also won the electorates of Hastings and Glen Waverley from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party's positive performances were in Nepean, where former professional tennis player Sam Groth was elected, as well as in Hawthorn as John Pesutto, who lost the seat in 2018, was returned.</p><p>The National Party, on the other hand, achieved very strong results. The party was able to retain all seats, and won the regional electorates of Mildura, Morwell, and Shepparton. Similarly, the Greens retained the three seats they held and won the inner-metropolitan seat of Richmond. So-called ‘teal’ independents, who had performed strongly in the federal election in May, did not win representation in the Victorian Parliament.</p><p>With the result of the election clear before 11pm, Matthew Guy conceded defeat. He highlighted positive results, such as swings against Labor, and did not immediately resign as leader. Shortly after, Daniel Andrews addressed his supporters by claiming victory. In a speech in which he cited former Prime Minister Paul Keating's advice on leadership, and arguing that “hope always defeats hate”, Andrews interpreted the result as strong support for his government's agenda.</p><p>The results in the Legislative Council took more time to finalise and were more positive for the Coalition and Greens. In the previous election, Labor held 18 of the 40 seats in the upper chamber, while the Coalition had 11, the Greens one, and a crossbench of 10. In 2022, Labor lost three seats, while the Coalition gained three. The Greens increased their representation to four, while the crossbench was now comprised of seven MPs, two of whom were from Legalise Cannabis Victoria. This meant that to pass bills through the parliament, Labor would have to work with the crossbench MPs in the upper house.</p><p>Matthew Guy resigned as Liberal leader the day after the election, and the Liberal Party began a period of self-reflection. Some within the party argued that its membership base was too narrow. Former Premier Ted Baillieu believed the party needed “generational renewal” and that many MPs needed to be replaced by new talent (<i>The Age</i>, 27 November 2022). Others argued that campaigning strategies and organisational reform were required to strengthen the party's performance in the future.</p><p>While the Liberal Party was engaged in deep retrospection, the new Andrews Ministry was sworn in with two new ministers. Enver Erdogan became the new minister for portfolios including Corrections, Youth Justice and Victim Support, while Natalie Suleyman became minister for portfolios including Veterans, Small Business and Youth.</p><p>David Southwick remained as deputy leader, while Georgie Crozier became opposition leader in the Legislative Council.</p><p>Having experienced major social, economic, and health disruptions due to COVID-19 in the previous parliamentary term, the Victorian community made a clear electoral choice in 2022. As many voters started to think about their summer plans, the 60<sup>th</sup> Parliament of Victoria was opened on 20 December and the Andrews-led Labor Party began its third consecutive term in government.</p>","PeriodicalId":45431,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Politics and History","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajph.12921","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Victoria\",\"authors\":\"Dr Zareh Ghazarian\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ajph.12921\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The anticipated political highlight in Victoria was the state election that would be held on the last Saturday of November. The Daniel Andrews-led Labor Party was focusing on winning its third election in a row. Having first been elected in 2014, Labor had extended its majority in the Legislative Assembly in 2018. This election, however, would be the first in Victoria since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With lingering debates about ethics and accountability in government, as well as health and the state's economy, Victorians would be treated to a vigorous contest by the major parties.</p><p>The second half of 2022 was a very busy period for those who were following ethics and accountability in government in Victoria. On 20 July, the recommendations from Operation Watts were released. This operation was the first that was jointly undertaken by the state's Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) and the state's Ombudsman. It examined claims of branch stacking in the ALP as well as alleged cases of Labor MPs misusing public money. The report highlighted that while some actions could not be regarded as criminal offences, there were examples of behaviours that may not have aligned with community expectations (Operation Watts Special Report, July 2022).</p><p>Operation Watts resulted in 21 recommendations that aimed to strengthen integrity and accountability in the public sector, but especially in the Victorian Parliament. These included establishing a new Parliamentary Ethics Committee and Parliamentary Integrity Commissioner. Additional recommendations included reviewing the Electorate Officers Code of Conduct to forbid staffers from undertaking party-political work during hours they were employed as an electorate officer, as well as stopping MPs from employing members of their family in electoral offices. Premier Daniel Andrews announced that all recommendations would be adopted and announced that “as leader of the party and leader of our state, I take full responsibility for that conduct” (<i>The Age</i>, 20 July 2022).</p><p>Additionally, the so-called ‘red shirts’ affair, in which approximately $400,000 of state money was reportedly misused by paying electoral officers and other staff to undertake party-related campaigning in the lead-up to the 2014 election, re-appeared on the political radar (see <i>The Guardian</i>, 28 July 2022). The Ombudsman had already presented a report on these matters to the Victorian Parliament in 2018 but had been asked to investigate once more by the Legislative Council, a move that was spearheaded by former Labor minister, Adem Somyurek.</p><p>The Ombudsman also took the opportunity to restate calls for an independent investigative agency, making ethics and accountability critical issues in the political debate in Victoria.</p><p>These issues provided the opposition leader, Matthew Guy, with opportunities to attack the government. The focus, however, quickly shifted to the Liberal Party after it was reported that Mitch Catlin, Matthew Guy's chief of staff, had asked an anonymous donor to pay $100,000 to his private business. Under this arrangement, the donor would pay approximately $8,300 a month to Catlin's company (<i>The Age</i>, 2 August 2022). While a formal contract was not signed, Guy was associated with the affair as leaked emails reportedly showed Catlin asking the opposition leader to forward the proposed contract to the benefactor. While Catlin promptly resigned, the damage for the Coalition was significant. The affair diminished Guy's capacity to attack the government on matters of integrity, with commentators questioning Guy's judgment (<i>The Age</i>, 5 August 2022).</p><p>The Liberal leader was further side-tracked when details emerged of staffing changes within his office. Guy was reported to have hired a close personal friend, Nick McGowan, to be his new chief of staff (<i>The Age</i>, 8 August 2022). McGowan was also the Liberal Party's candidate for the North-Eastern Metropolitan region. The appointment seemingly led to further divisions within the party as some Liberal MPs felt “angered” by Guy's choice (<i>The Age</i>, 8 August 2022). It was also reported that additional staff members, including the director of communications, had left Guy's office following McGowan's appointment (<i>Sky News</i>, 12 August 2022). These events arguably had a negative impact on the Coalition's electoral support as they contributed to a sense that the opposition was still struggling to settle its internal structures before the formal start of the election campaign.</p><p>With just three months to go before the state election, opinion polls started to become a prominent feature of the reporting on Victorian politics. On 27 August, Newspoll released figures that showed Labor was likely to retain government as it led the Coalition 56 per cent to 44 per cent on the all-important two-party preferred measure. Moreover, 51 per cent of respondents said that Daniel Andrews would make the better premier compared to just 34 per cent for Matthew Guy. This aligned with data from Roy Morgan which reported a 60.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent two-party preferred result on 14 August.</p><p>Furthermore, the opposition's attack on issues of trust and accountability in the Labor Party was seemingly not having an impact on the public's attitude towards the government. In a poll published in <i>The Age</i> on 25 August, 42 per cent of voters said that Labor was best placed to “govern with integrity and honesty”, while just 21 per cent of voters said the same for the Coalition. This, along with other published opinion polls, indicated that the Coalition would struggle to increase its representation in the Victorian Parliament.</p><p>The government's performance in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic was publicly scrutinised when, in September, the Inspector-General for Emergency Management (IGEM) released its review of the state's emergency call performance between December 2020 and May 2022. The report found that there had been 40 “potentially adverse events” during this period concerning delays and “33 of these patients did not survive their emergencies” (IGEM Report, September 2022, 6).</p><p>The review also considered the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority (ESTA), the state's call centre for emergency services. The review found that the demands for ambulance services during the pandemic meant that ESTA struggled to answer calls quickly. The review also found that calls for ambulances increased “beyond historical highs, and emergency calls [were] queuing for completely unacceptable lengths of time – 10 minutes, 15 minutes, and longer” (IGEM Report, September 2022, p5). Premier Andrews responded to these findings by saying, “We apologise for a system that did not meet your needs, we absolutely apologise, and we appreciate just how challenging this will be for you” (<i>ABC News</i>, 6 September 2022).</p><p>This episode gave the state opposition new opportunities to criticise the government's performance in healthcare. It also provided the Liberal Party with a platform to make new announcements concerning health and hospitals. These included pledging $400 million to upgrade Maroondah Hospital to serve the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It was reported that this took the opposition's commitments on health to over $6 billion which raised questions about how these projects would be funded. Opposition leader Guy promised that these projects would be completed by diverting funds allocated to the Suburban Rail Loop to healthcare.</p><p>This followed a critical contribution on 4 September in <i>The Age</i> by former ABC Radio Melbourne morning show presenter Jon Faine arguing that power had been concentrated in the premier's office and was now “more centralised than during the peak of the Kennett regime”.</p><p>Within this context, the final weeks before the election were marked by intensive campaigning and policy promises. Service delivery was prominent in the platforms for both major parties. The Liberal Party also avoided drawing attention to law-and-order issues following the party's overemphasis of these matters in 2018. Rather, the Coalition seemingly presented a more positive policy plan which included significant spending promises.</p><p>Healthcare was a major area of focus, as would be expected in a state election. For example, Labor committed over $2 billion to building or upgrading hospitals across the state. In addition, there was a new $5,000 bonus that would be paid to recently graduated nurses and midwives who worked in the public health system for two years or more. The Coalition also focused on health and promised to reduce elective surgery waiting lists, as well as build or modernise over 25 hospitals (<i>The Guardian</i>, 25 November 2022). The Liberal Party also promised to provide dental vouchers and build the state's nursing capacity.</p><p>The cost of public transport was highlighted by both major parties. Labor sought to bring parity to V/Line and metropolitan train travel prices, while the Coalition promised to limit public transport prices to $2 a day. The major parties also promised significant spending in education. On climate change, the Coalition promised to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, compared to Labor's promise to do so by 2045 (<i>The Guardian</i>, 25 November 2022).</p><p>A major announcement by Labor was the re-establishment of the State Electricity Commission (SEC) which had previously been privatised by the Kennett Government in the mid 1990s. The SEC was a major feature of Daniel Andrews' campaign launch in Cranbourne. The premier argued that re-starting the SEC would lead to lower power costs and provide employment opportunities for thousands of Victorians. The SEC announcement was at the core of Labor's economic, environmental, and energy narrative, with the theme of the campaign labelled ‘Doing What Matters’ (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022).</p><p>Guy launched the Liberal Party's campaign in Port Melbourne on the same day as Labor (13 November) with a focus on integrity, cost of living, and service delivery. A major feature of the Liberal campaign narrative was to reduce energy costs and advance new natural gas projects to provide energy in the state (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022). At the same time, Guy acknowledged the difficulty of winning government by describing it as “like climbing Mount Everest without oxygen. Here in Victoria, [where] Labor has been in government for 19 of the past 23 years, it's like doing it in a blizzard, backwards” (<i>The Age</i>, 13 November 2022).</p><p>At the previous election in 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Liberal Party won 21 seats, and the Nationals won six seats (for a combined total of 27 for the Coalition). The Greens also won three seats in addition to three independents. To regain government, the Coalition needed to win at least an additional 17 seats.</p><p>Following the close of polls at 6 pm on 26 November, early results showed that the Coalition's performance continued to be weak and that it would struggle to make up any ground. By the end of counting, Labor had won 56 seats (a net gain of one seat), and the Greens had also increased their representation by one (for a new total of four), while all independents had been defeated. The Coalition won 28 seats (a net gain of one seat). The Coalition result includes the by-election for Narracan which was held in January 2023 following the death of the Nationals candidate just days before the November election.</p><p>Election data from Antony Green on the ABC website provides a useful resource that charts the performance of the parties (see also Victorian Electoral Commission). While Labor won the election, it did lose some support. On a state-wide basis, the primary vote for Labor fell by 6.2 per cent to 36.6 per cent, while the Liberal primary vote fell 0.6 per cent to 29.8 per cent. The Greens' primary vote rose by 0.8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, while the National Party's primary vote fell by just 0.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Small parties also experienced an increase in support, with the Family First Party, Animal Justice Party, and Freedom Party attracting a combined primary vote of over 7 per cent.</p><p>A closer exploration of districts gives an indication of what was occurring in the Victorian electorate. In provincial seats such as Bendigo East, for example, Labor's primary vote fell by 2 per cent, which translated to a two-party preferred swing of 1.2 per cent to the Liberal candidate. This, however, was inconsequential as Labor retained the seat once preferences were distributed; the two-party preferred vote saw Labor on 60.9 per cent and the Liberal Party on 39.1 per cent. Similarly, in Bendigo West, Labor's primary vote fell by 7 per cent, but this had a minor impact on the two-party preferred result where it retained the seat with a 14 per cent margin.</p><p>Comparable results occurred in metropolitan seats that were held by Labor. In the traditionally Labor electorate of Broadmeadows, for example, Labor lost 10.8 per cent of its primary vote but held the seat with a smaller, but still very strong, margin of 15 per cent. This trend continued in so-called sand-belt seats across the south-eastern bayside electorates such as Carrum and Mordialloc where Labor's primary vote fell, but the party was in no danger of losing these electorates. These results showed that some voters were turning against Labor, but not to the extent that it would cause a change of government.</p><p>The performance of the Liberal Party in eastern-metropolitan seats suggested that voters felt it was ill-prepared to form government. For example, the new seat of Ashwood, which replaced Mount Waverley, was notionally held by Labor by just 2 per cent. Mount Waverley had been held by the Liberal Party in the past, so it was expected that if the party was to have any chance of reclaiming government it would have to win Ashwood. The result, however, was that the Liberal primary vote fell by 7 per cent. Ashwood became a safe seat for Labor with a new margin of over 6 per cent. A similar result occurred in Bayswater which had been redistributed and was held by the Liberal Party by less than 1 per cent. The election resulted in the Liberal primary vote falling by 12 per cent, and Labor winning the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 4 per cent. Labor also won the electorates of Hastings and Glen Waverley from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party's positive performances were in Nepean, where former professional tennis player Sam Groth was elected, as well as in Hawthorn as John Pesutto, who lost the seat in 2018, was returned.</p><p>The National Party, on the other hand, achieved very strong results. The party was able to retain all seats, and won the regional electorates of Mildura, Morwell, and Shepparton. Similarly, the Greens retained the three seats they held and won the inner-metropolitan seat of Richmond. So-called ‘teal’ independents, who had performed strongly in the federal election in May, did not win representation in the Victorian Parliament.</p><p>With the result of the election clear before 11pm, Matthew Guy conceded defeat. He highlighted positive results, such as swings against Labor, and did not immediately resign as leader. Shortly after, Daniel Andrews addressed his supporters by claiming victory. In a speech in which he cited former Prime Minister Paul Keating's advice on leadership, and arguing that “hope always defeats hate”, Andrews interpreted the result as strong support for his government's agenda.</p><p>The results in the Legislative Council took more time to finalise and were more positive for the Coalition and Greens. In the previous election, Labor held 18 of the 40 seats in the upper chamber, while the Coalition had 11, the Greens one, and a crossbench of 10. In 2022, Labor lost three seats, while the Coalition gained three. The Greens increased their representation to four, while the crossbench was now comprised of seven MPs, two of whom were from Legalise Cannabis Victoria. This meant that to pass bills through the parliament, Labor would have to work with the crossbench MPs in the upper house.</p><p>Matthew Guy resigned as Liberal leader the day after the election, and the Liberal Party began a period of self-reflection. Some within the party argued that its membership base was too narrow. Former Premier Ted Baillieu believed the party needed “generational renewal” and that many MPs needed to be replaced by new talent (<i>The Age</i>, 27 November 2022). Others argued that campaigning strategies and organisational reform were required to strengthen the party's performance in the future.</p><p>While the Liberal Party was engaged in deep retrospection, the new Andrews Ministry was sworn in with two new ministers. Enver Erdogan became the new minister for portfolios including Corrections, Youth Justice and Victim Support, while Natalie Suleyman became minister for portfolios including Veterans, Small Business and Youth.</p><p>David Southwick remained as deputy leader, while Georgie Crozier became opposition leader in the Legislative Council.</p><p>Having experienced major social, economic, and health disruptions due to COVID-19 in the previous parliamentary term, the Victorian community made a clear electoral choice in 2022. As many voters started to think about their summer plans, the 60<sup>th</sup> Parliament of Victoria was opened on 20 December and the Andrews-led Labor Party began its third consecutive term in government.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45431,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Australian Journal of Politics and History\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajph.12921\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Australian Journal of Politics and History\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"98\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.12921\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HISTORY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Australian Journal of Politics and History","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.12921","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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摘要

预计维多利亚州的政治亮点是将于11月最后一个星期六举行的州选举。丹尼尔·安德鲁斯领导的工党正专注于连续第三次赢得大选。工党于2014年首次当选,并于2018年扩大了其在立法议会的多数席位。然而,这次选举将是自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来维多利亚州的首次选举。由于关于政府道德和问责制以及健康和州经济的辩论挥之不去,维多利亚州人将面临主要政党的激烈竞争。对于那些在维多利亚州政府中遵守道德和问责制的人来说,2022年下半年是一个非常繁忙的时期。7月20日,瓦茨行动发布了建议。这是该州基础广泛的独立反腐败委员会(IBAC)和该州监察员首次联合开展行动。它审查了ALP分支机构堆积的指控,以及工党议员滥用公共资金的指控。该报告强调,虽然一些行为不能被视为刑事犯罪,但也有一些行为可能与社区期望不符(瓦茨行动特别报告,2022年7月)。瓦茨行动提出了21项建议,旨在加强公共部门的诚信和问责制,尤其是在维多利亚州议会。其中包括设立一个新的议会道德委员会和议会廉政专员。其他建议包括审查《选举官员行为准则》,禁止工作人员在担任选举官员期间从事政党政治工作,并阻止议员在选举办公室雇用家人。总理丹尼尔·安德鲁斯宣布,所有建议都将被采纳,并宣布“作为党的领导人和我们州的领导人,我对这种行为承担全部责任”(《时代》,2022年7月20日)。此外,所谓的“红衫军”事件,据报道,在2014年大选前,约40万美元的国家资金被支付给选举官员和其他工作人员,用于进行与政党有关的竞选活动,这再次出现在政治雷达上(见《卫报》,2022年7月28日)。2018年,监察员已经向维多利亚州议会提交了一份关于这些问题的报告,但立法委员会要求监察员再次进行调查,这一行动由前劳工部长Adem Somyurek牵头。监察员还借此机会重申了成立独立调查机构的呼吁,在维多利亚州的政治辩论中,道德和问责制成为关键问题。这些问题为反对党领袖马修·盖伊提供了攻击政府的机会。然而,在有报道称马修·盖伊的幕僚长米奇·卡特林要求一位匿名捐赠者向他的私人企业支付10万美元后,焦点很快转移到了自由党身上。根据这一安排,捐赠者每月将向Catlin的公司支付约8300美元(the Age,2022年8月2日)。虽然没有签署正式合同,但盖伊与此事有关,据报道,泄露的电子邮件显示,卡特林要求反对派领导人将拟议的合同转交给捐助者。虽然卡特林迅速辞职,但对联盟的损害是巨大的。这件事削弱了盖伊在诚信问题上攻击政府的能力,评论员质疑盖伊的判断(《时代》,2022年8月5日)。当这位自由党领袖的办公室人事变动细节浮出水面时,他被进一步回避了。据报道,盖伊聘请了一位亲密的私人朋友尼克·麦高文担任他的新幕僚长(《时代》,2022年8月8日)。麦高文也是自由党在东北大都会区的候选人。这一任命似乎导致了党内的进一步分歧,因为一些自由党议员对盖伊的选择感到“愤怒”(《时代》,2022年8月8日)。另据报道,在麦高文被任命后,包括通讯主任在内的其他工作人员已离开盖伊的办公室(天空新闻,2022年8月12日)。可以说,这些事件对联盟的选举支持产生了负面影响,因为它们助长了一种感觉,即反对派在竞选活动正式开始前仍在努力解决其内部结构问题。距离州选举仅剩三个月,民意调查开始成为维多利亚州政治报道的一个突出特点。8月27日,Newspoll发布的数据显示,工党很可能会保留政府,因为在至关重要的两党优先措施上,工党以56%对44%的得票率领先联盟。此外,51%的受访者表示丹尼尔·安德鲁斯将成为更好的总理,而马修·盖伊的这一比例仅为34%。 这与Roy Morgan的数据一致,Roy Morgan在8月14日公布的两党支持率为60.5%至39.5%。此外,反对派对工党信任和问责问题的攻击似乎没有影响公众对政府的态度。在8月25日发表在《时代》杂志上的一项民意调查中,42%的选民表示工党最适合“以正直和诚实的态度执政”,而只有21%的选民表示联盟也是如此。这与其他已公布的民意调查一起表明,该联盟将难以增加其在维多利亚州议会的代表性。在新冠肺炎大流行期间,政府在医疗保健方面的表现受到了公开审查,9月,应急管理监察长(IGEM)发布了对2020年12月至2022年5月期间该州紧急呼叫绩效的审查。该报告发现,在此期间发生了40起与延误有关的“潜在不良事件”,“其中33名患者在紧急情况下未能幸存”(IGEM报告,2022年9月,6日)。该审查还考虑了国家紧急服务呼叫中心紧急服务电信管理局(ESTA)。审查发现,疫情期间对救护车服务的需求意味着ESTA难以快速接听电话。审查还发现,救护车的呼叫量“超过了历史最高点,紧急呼叫的排队时间完全不可接受——10分钟、15分钟甚至更长”(IGEM报告,2022年9月,第5页)。安德鲁斯总理回应这些调查结果时说:“我们为一个不符合你们需求的系统道歉,我们绝对道歉,我们理解这对你们来说将是多么具有挑战性”(美国广播公司新闻,2022年9月6日)。这一事件给了州反对派批评政府在医疗保健方面表现的新机会。它还为自由党提供了一个平台,可以发布有关卫生和医院的新公告。其中包括认捐4亿美元,用于升级Maroondah医院,为墨尔本东郊提供服务。据报道,这使反对派在卫生方面的承诺超过了60亿美元,这引发了人们对如何资助这些项目的质疑。反对党领袖盖伊承诺,这些项目将通过将分配给郊区铁路环线的资金用于医疗保健来完成。9月4日,前美国广播公司墨尔本电台早间节目主持人Jon Faine在《时代》杂志上发表了一篇重要文章,称权力一直集中在总理办公室,现在“比肯尼特政权鼎盛时期更加集中”。在这种情况下,选举前的最后几周充满了密集的竞选活动和政策承诺。服务交付在两个主要政党的平台上都很突出。自由党在2018年过分强调法律和秩序问题后,也避免引起人们对这些问题的关注。相反,联盟似乎提出了一项更积极的政策计划,其中包括重大的支出承诺。医疗保健是一个主要关注领域,正如在州选举中所预期的那样。例如,工党承诺投入20多亿美元在全州范围内建设或升级医院。此外,还将向在公共卫生系统工作两年或两年以上的最近毕业的护士和助产士发放5000美元的新奖金。该联盟还关注健康,并承诺减少择期手术等待名单,并建设或现代化超过25家医院(《卫报》,2022年11月25日)。自由党还承诺提供牙科代金券,并建设该州的护理能力。两个主要政党都强调了公共交通的成本。工党试图使V/Line和大都市火车旅行价格持平,而联盟承诺将公共交通价格限制在每天2美元。主要政党还承诺在教育方面投入大量资金。在气候变化问题上,联盟承诺到2050年实现净零排放,而工党承诺到2045年实现净0排放(《卫报》,2022年11月25日)。工党的一项重大宣布是重新成立国家电力委员会(SEC),该委员会此前在20世纪90年代中期由肯尼特政府私有化。美国证券交易委员会是丹尼尔·安德鲁斯在克兰本发起的竞选活动的一大特色。总理认为,重新启动美国证券交易委员会将降低电力成本,并为成千上万的维多利亚人提供就业机会。美国证券交易委员会的声明是工党经济、环境和能源叙事的核心,主题为“做重要的事”(The Age,2022年11月13日)。盖伊与工党(11月13号)同一天在墨尔本港发起了自由党的竞选活动,重点关注诚信、生活成本和服务提供。 选举结果在晚上11点前揭晓,马修·盖伊承认失败。他强调了积极的结果,比如对工党的摇摆,并没有立即辞去领导人的职务。不久之后,丹尼尔·安德鲁斯向支持者发表讲话,宣布获胜。安德鲁斯在一次演讲中引用了前总理保罗·基廷关于领导力的建议,并认为“希望总是战胜仇恨”,他将这一结果解释为对政府议程的有力支持。立法会的结果需要更多的时间才能最终确定,对联盟和绿党来说更为积极。在上一次选举中,工党在上议院的40个席位中占据了18个,而联盟有11个,绿党有一个,交叉席位有10个。2022年,工党失去了三个席位,而联盟获得了三个。绿党将其代表人数增加到4人,而跨席议员现在由7名议员组成,其中两名来自维多利亚合法大麻协会。这意味着,要想在议会通过法案,工党必须与上议院的跨党派议员合作。马修·盖伊在选举后的第二天辞去了自由党领袖的职务,自由党开始了一段自我反思的时期。党内一些人认为其党员基础过于狭窄。前总理Ted Baillieu认为该党需要“世代复兴”,许多议员需要被新的人才取代(the Age,2022年11月27日)。其他人则认为,需要竞选策略和组织改革来加强党在未来的表现。在自由党进行深刻反思的同时,新的安德鲁斯部与两位新部长宣誓就职。Enver Erdogan成为负责惩教、青年司法和受害者支持等事务的新部长,Natalie Suleyman成为负责退伍军人、小企业和青年事务的部长。David Southwick仍然担任副领导人,Georgie Crozier成为立法会的反对党领袖,以及上一届议会任期内新冠肺炎造成的健康中断,维多利亚社区在2022年做出了明确的选举选择。随着许多选民开始考虑他们的夏季计划,维多利亚州第60届议会于12月20日开幕,安德鲁斯领导的工党开始了连续第三届政府任期。
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Victoria

The anticipated political highlight in Victoria was the state election that would be held on the last Saturday of November. The Daniel Andrews-led Labor Party was focusing on winning its third election in a row. Having first been elected in 2014, Labor had extended its majority in the Legislative Assembly in 2018. This election, however, would be the first in Victoria since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With lingering debates about ethics and accountability in government, as well as health and the state's economy, Victorians would be treated to a vigorous contest by the major parties.

The second half of 2022 was a very busy period for those who were following ethics and accountability in government in Victoria. On 20 July, the recommendations from Operation Watts were released. This operation was the first that was jointly undertaken by the state's Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) and the state's Ombudsman. It examined claims of branch stacking in the ALP as well as alleged cases of Labor MPs misusing public money. The report highlighted that while some actions could not be regarded as criminal offences, there were examples of behaviours that may not have aligned with community expectations (Operation Watts Special Report, July 2022).

Operation Watts resulted in 21 recommendations that aimed to strengthen integrity and accountability in the public sector, but especially in the Victorian Parliament. These included establishing a new Parliamentary Ethics Committee and Parliamentary Integrity Commissioner. Additional recommendations included reviewing the Electorate Officers Code of Conduct to forbid staffers from undertaking party-political work during hours they were employed as an electorate officer, as well as stopping MPs from employing members of their family in electoral offices. Premier Daniel Andrews announced that all recommendations would be adopted and announced that “as leader of the party and leader of our state, I take full responsibility for that conduct” (The Age, 20 July 2022).

Additionally, the so-called ‘red shirts’ affair, in which approximately $400,000 of state money was reportedly misused by paying electoral officers and other staff to undertake party-related campaigning in the lead-up to the 2014 election, re-appeared on the political radar (see The Guardian, 28 July 2022). The Ombudsman had already presented a report on these matters to the Victorian Parliament in 2018 but had been asked to investigate once more by the Legislative Council, a move that was spearheaded by former Labor minister, Adem Somyurek.

The Ombudsman also took the opportunity to restate calls for an independent investigative agency, making ethics and accountability critical issues in the political debate in Victoria.

These issues provided the opposition leader, Matthew Guy, with opportunities to attack the government. The focus, however, quickly shifted to the Liberal Party after it was reported that Mitch Catlin, Matthew Guy's chief of staff, had asked an anonymous donor to pay $100,000 to his private business. Under this arrangement, the donor would pay approximately $8,300 a month to Catlin's company (The Age, 2 August 2022). While a formal contract was not signed, Guy was associated with the affair as leaked emails reportedly showed Catlin asking the opposition leader to forward the proposed contract to the benefactor. While Catlin promptly resigned, the damage for the Coalition was significant. The affair diminished Guy's capacity to attack the government on matters of integrity, with commentators questioning Guy's judgment (The Age, 5 August 2022).

The Liberal leader was further side-tracked when details emerged of staffing changes within his office. Guy was reported to have hired a close personal friend, Nick McGowan, to be his new chief of staff (The Age, 8 August 2022). McGowan was also the Liberal Party's candidate for the North-Eastern Metropolitan region. The appointment seemingly led to further divisions within the party as some Liberal MPs felt “angered” by Guy's choice (The Age, 8 August 2022). It was also reported that additional staff members, including the director of communications, had left Guy's office following McGowan's appointment (Sky News, 12 August 2022). These events arguably had a negative impact on the Coalition's electoral support as they contributed to a sense that the opposition was still struggling to settle its internal structures before the formal start of the election campaign.

With just three months to go before the state election, opinion polls started to become a prominent feature of the reporting on Victorian politics. On 27 August, Newspoll released figures that showed Labor was likely to retain government as it led the Coalition 56 per cent to 44 per cent on the all-important two-party preferred measure. Moreover, 51 per cent of respondents said that Daniel Andrews would make the better premier compared to just 34 per cent for Matthew Guy. This aligned with data from Roy Morgan which reported a 60.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent two-party preferred result on 14 August.

Furthermore, the opposition's attack on issues of trust and accountability in the Labor Party was seemingly not having an impact on the public's attitude towards the government. In a poll published in The Age on 25 August, 42 per cent of voters said that Labor was best placed to “govern with integrity and honesty”, while just 21 per cent of voters said the same for the Coalition. This, along with other published opinion polls, indicated that the Coalition would struggle to increase its representation in the Victorian Parliament.

The government's performance in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic was publicly scrutinised when, in September, the Inspector-General for Emergency Management (IGEM) released its review of the state's emergency call performance between December 2020 and May 2022. The report found that there had been 40 “potentially adverse events” during this period concerning delays and “33 of these patients did not survive their emergencies” (IGEM Report, September 2022, 6).

The review also considered the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority (ESTA), the state's call centre for emergency services. The review found that the demands for ambulance services during the pandemic meant that ESTA struggled to answer calls quickly. The review also found that calls for ambulances increased “beyond historical highs, and emergency calls [were] queuing for completely unacceptable lengths of time – 10 minutes, 15 minutes, and longer” (IGEM Report, September 2022, p5). Premier Andrews responded to these findings by saying, “We apologise for a system that did not meet your needs, we absolutely apologise, and we appreciate just how challenging this will be for you” (ABC News, 6 September 2022).

This episode gave the state opposition new opportunities to criticise the government's performance in healthcare. It also provided the Liberal Party with a platform to make new announcements concerning health and hospitals. These included pledging $400 million to upgrade Maroondah Hospital to serve the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It was reported that this took the opposition's commitments on health to over $6 billion which raised questions about how these projects would be funded. Opposition leader Guy promised that these projects would be completed by diverting funds allocated to the Suburban Rail Loop to healthcare.

This followed a critical contribution on 4 September in The Age by former ABC Radio Melbourne morning show presenter Jon Faine arguing that power had been concentrated in the premier's office and was now “more centralised than during the peak of the Kennett regime”.

Within this context, the final weeks before the election were marked by intensive campaigning and policy promises. Service delivery was prominent in the platforms for both major parties. The Liberal Party also avoided drawing attention to law-and-order issues following the party's overemphasis of these matters in 2018. Rather, the Coalition seemingly presented a more positive policy plan which included significant spending promises.

Healthcare was a major area of focus, as would be expected in a state election. For example, Labor committed over $2 billion to building or upgrading hospitals across the state. In addition, there was a new $5,000 bonus that would be paid to recently graduated nurses and midwives who worked in the public health system for two years or more. The Coalition also focused on health and promised to reduce elective surgery waiting lists, as well as build or modernise over 25 hospitals (The Guardian, 25 November 2022). The Liberal Party also promised to provide dental vouchers and build the state's nursing capacity.

The cost of public transport was highlighted by both major parties. Labor sought to bring parity to V/Line and metropolitan train travel prices, while the Coalition promised to limit public transport prices to $2 a day. The major parties also promised significant spending in education. On climate change, the Coalition promised to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, compared to Labor's promise to do so by 2045 (The Guardian, 25 November 2022).

A major announcement by Labor was the re-establishment of the State Electricity Commission (SEC) which had previously been privatised by the Kennett Government in the mid 1990s. The SEC was a major feature of Daniel Andrews' campaign launch in Cranbourne. The premier argued that re-starting the SEC would lead to lower power costs and provide employment opportunities for thousands of Victorians. The SEC announcement was at the core of Labor's economic, environmental, and energy narrative, with the theme of the campaign labelled ‘Doing What Matters’ (The Age, 13 November 2022).

Guy launched the Liberal Party's campaign in Port Melbourne on the same day as Labor (13 November) with a focus on integrity, cost of living, and service delivery. A major feature of the Liberal campaign narrative was to reduce energy costs and advance new natural gas projects to provide energy in the state (The Age, 13 November 2022). At the same time, Guy acknowledged the difficulty of winning government by describing it as “like climbing Mount Everest without oxygen. Here in Victoria, [where] Labor has been in government for 19 of the past 23 years, it's like doing it in a blizzard, backwards” (The Age, 13 November 2022).

At the previous election in 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Liberal Party won 21 seats, and the Nationals won six seats (for a combined total of 27 for the Coalition). The Greens also won three seats in addition to three independents. To regain government, the Coalition needed to win at least an additional 17 seats.

Following the close of polls at 6 pm on 26 November, early results showed that the Coalition's performance continued to be weak and that it would struggle to make up any ground. By the end of counting, Labor had won 56 seats (a net gain of one seat), and the Greens had also increased their representation by one (for a new total of four), while all independents had been defeated. The Coalition won 28 seats (a net gain of one seat). The Coalition result includes the by-election for Narracan which was held in January 2023 following the death of the Nationals candidate just days before the November election.

Election data from Antony Green on the ABC website provides a useful resource that charts the performance of the parties (see also Victorian Electoral Commission). While Labor won the election, it did lose some support. On a state-wide basis, the primary vote for Labor fell by 6.2 per cent to 36.6 per cent, while the Liberal primary vote fell 0.6 per cent to 29.8 per cent. The Greens' primary vote rose by 0.8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, while the National Party's primary vote fell by just 0.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Small parties also experienced an increase in support, with the Family First Party, Animal Justice Party, and Freedom Party attracting a combined primary vote of over 7 per cent.

A closer exploration of districts gives an indication of what was occurring in the Victorian electorate. In provincial seats such as Bendigo East, for example, Labor's primary vote fell by 2 per cent, which translated to a two-party preferred swing of 1.2 per cent to the Liberal candidate. This, however, was inconsequential as Labor retained the seat once preferences were distributed; the two-party preferred vote saw Labor on 60.9 per cent and the Liberal Party on 39.1 per cent. Similarly, in Bendigo West, Labor's primary vote fell by 7 per cent, but this had a minor impact on the two-party preferred result where it retained the seat with a 14 per cent margin.

Comparable results occurred in metropolitan seats that were held by Labor. In the traditionally Labor electorate of Broadmeadows, for example, Labor lost 10.8 per cent of its primary vote but held the seat with a smaller, but still very strong, margin of 15 per cent. This trend continued in so-called sand-belt seats across the south-eastern bayside electorates such as Carrum and Mordialloc where Labor's primary vote fell, but the party was in no danger of losing these electorates. These results showed that some voters were turning against Labor, but not to the extent that it would cause a change of government.

The performance of the Liberal Party in eastern-metropolitan seats suggested that voters felt it was ill-prepared to form government. For example, the new seat of Ashwood, which replaced Mount Waverley, was notionally held by Labor by just 2 per cent. Mount Waverley had been held by the Liberal Party in the past, so it was expected that if the party was to have any chance of reclaiming government it would have to win Ashwood. The result, however, was that the Liberal primary vote fell by 7 per cent. Ashwood became a safe seat for Labor with a new margin of over 6 per cent. A similar result occurred in Bayswater which had been redistributed and was held by the Liberal Party by less than 1 per cent. The election resulted in the Liberal primary vote falling by 12 per cent, and Labor winning the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 4 per cent. Labor also won the electorates of Hastings and Glen Waverley from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party's positive performances were in Nepean, where former professional tennis player Sam Groth was elected, as well as in Hawthorn as John Pesutto, who lost the seat in 2018, was returned.

The National Party, on the other hand, achieved very strong results. The party was able to retain all seats, and won the regional electorates of Mildura, Morwell, and Shepparton. Similarly, the Greens retained the three seats they held and won the inner-metropolitan seat of Richmond. So-called ‘teal’ independents, who had performed strongly in the federal election in May, did not win representation in the Victorian Parliament.

With the result of the election clear before 11pm, Matthew Guy conceded defeat. He highlighted positive results, such as swings against Labor, and did not immediately resign as leader. Shortly after, Daniel Andrews addressed his supporters by claiming victory. In a speech in which he cited former Prime Minister Paul Keating's advice on leadership, and arguing that “hope always defeats hate”, Andrews interpreted the result as strong support for his government's agenda.

The results in the Legislative Council took more time to finalise and were more positive for the Coalition and Greens. In the previous election, Labor held 18 of the 40 seats in the upper chamber, while the Coalition had 11, the Greens one, and a crossbench of 10. In 2022, Labor lost three seats, while the Coalition gained three. The Greens increased their representation to four, while the crossbench was now comprised of seven MPs, two of whom were from Legalise Cannabis Victoria. This meant that to pass bills through the parliament, Labor would have to work with the crossbench MPs in the upper house.

Matthew Guy resigned as Liberal leader the day after the election, and the Liberal Party began a period of self-reflection. Some within the party argued that its membership base was too narrow. Former Premier Ted Baillieu believed the party needed “generational renewal” and that many MPs needed to be replaced by new talent (The Age, 27 November 2022). Others argued that campaigning strategies and organisational reform were required to strengthen the party's performance in the future.

While the Liberal Party was engaged in deep retrospection, the new Andrews Ministry was sworn in with two new ministers. Enver Erdogan became the new minister for portfolios including Corrections, Youth Justice and Victim Support, while Natalie Suleyman became minister for portfolios including Veterans, Small Business and Youth.

David Southwick remained as deputy leader, while Georgie Crozier became opposition leader in the Legislative Council.

Having experienced major social, economic, and health disruptions due to COVID-19 in the previous parliamentary term, the Victorian community made a clear electoral choice in 2022. As many voters started to think about their summer plans, the 60th Parliament of Victoria was opened on 20 December and the Andrews-led Labor Party began its third consecutive term in government.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
59
期刊介绍: The Australian Journal of Politics and History presents papers addressing significant problems of general interest to those working in the fields of history, political studies and international affairs. Articles explore the politics and history of Australia and modern Europe, intellectual history, political history, and the history of political thought. The journal also publishes articles in the fields of international politics, Australian foreign policy, and Australia relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Issue Information Western Australia July to December 2023 Commonwealth of Australia July to December 2023 Issues in Australian Foreign Policy July to December 2023
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