博查特假设:1930-1932年间德国债务与危机的计量学再评估

IF 2.5 1区 历史学 Q2 ECONOMICS Journal of Economic History Pub Date : 2022-07-05 DOI:10.1017/s0022050722000262
Tai-kuang Ho, Ya-chi Lin, Kuo-chun Yeh
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究考察了另一种汇率政策是否可以缓解1930年4月至1932年5月期间德国的经济衰退,当时海因里希•布尔宁(Heinrich bricskanzler)是魏玛共和国(Weimar Republic)的总督。使用开放经济动态模型作为我们的分析框架,我们考察了反对采取贬值政策的论点。我们的反事实分析表明,人们普遍认为浮动德国马克会导致高通胀的观点是没有根据的。尽管德国的外债很高,但在大萧条时期,让德国马克浮动将会减少德国实际GDP和就业的下降。
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The Borchardt Hypothesis: A Cliometric Reassessment of Germany’s Debt and Crisis during 1930–1932

This research examines whether an alternative exchange rate policy could have mitigated Germany’s recession from April 1930 to May 1932, when Heinrich Brüning was Reichskanzler of the Weimar Republic. Using an open-economy dynamic model as our analytical framework, we examine the arguments against adopting the devaluation policy. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a widely held belief—that floating the Reichsmark would have led to high inflation—is unwarranted. Despite Germany’s high foreign debt, floating the Reichsmark would have led to less of a decline in both real GDP and employment for the country during the Great Depression.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
4.80%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: The Journal of Economic History is devoted to the multidisciplinary study of history and economics, and is of interest not only to economic historians but to social and demographic historians, as well as economists in general. The journal has broad coverage, in terms of both methodology and geographic scope. Topics covered include money and banking, trade, manufacturing, technology, transportation, industrial organisation, labour, agriculture, servitude, demography, education, economic growth, and the role of government and regulation. In addition, an extensive book review section keeps readers informed about the latest work in economic history and related fields.
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