战争、流行病和欧洲的现代经济增长

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101467
Leandro Prados de la Escosura , C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文运用长期依赖的统计概念对欧洲现代经济增长进行了讨论。不同的制度,定义为两次连续的内生结构性冲击之间的时期,与流行病和战争的发作相匹配。最持久的冲击发生在黑死病和20世纪的世界大战期间。我们的研究结果证实,黑死病通常会导致更高的收入水平,但拒绝了对鼠疫采取统一长期应对措施的观点。事实上,我们在非马尔萨斯经济体中发现了对收入的负面影响。在北海地区(英国和荷兰),鼠疫之后是人均产出和人口的正趋势增长,预示着现代经济增长和欧亚大陆大分化的开始。
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War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe

This paper contributes to the debate on Europe's modern economic growth using the statistical concept of long-range dependence. Different regimes, defined as periods between two successive endogenously estimated structural shocks, matched episodes of pandemics and war. The most persistent shocks occurred at the time of the Black Death and the twentieth century's world wars. Our findings confirm that the Black Death often resulted in higher income levels but reject the view of a uniform long-term response to the Plague. In fact, we find a negative impact on incomes in non-Malthusian economies. In the North Sea Area (Britain and the Netherlands), the Plague was followed by positive trend growth in output per capita and population, heralding the onset of modern economic growth and the Great Divergence in Eurasia.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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