地球系统引爆要素的机制与影响

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI:10.1029/2021RG000757
Seaver Wang, Adrianna Foster, Elizabeth A. Lenz, John D. Kessler, Julienne C. Stroeve, Liana O. Anderson, Merritt Turetsky, Richard Betts, Sijia Zou, Wei Liu, William R. Boos, Zeke Hausfather
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引用次数: 11

摘要

引爆要素是地球系统的组成部分,在通过关键阈值或“引爆点”后,通过向本质上不同的长期状态过渡,可能对人为气候变化作出非线性反应。在某些情况下,这种变化可能会产生额外的温室气体排放或辐射强迫,从而加剧全球变暖。提高对引爆因素的理解对于预测未来气候风险及其影响非常重要。在这里,我们回顾了机制、预测、影响和与10个重要的地球系统组成部分相关的知识差距,这些组成部分被认为是引爆因素。我们评估哪些引爆因素正在接近临界阈值,以及变化是否会迅速显现或在更长的时间尺度上显现。在中间排放路径下,一些引爆因素跨越引爆点的风险更高,并可能在21世纪影响主要生态系统、气候模式和/或碳循环。然而,评估不同排放情景的文献表明,通过减缓气候变化,有很大的潜力减少与许多引爆因素相关的影响。我们综述中综合的研究表明,大多数引爆因素在未来几年内不具备突然变化的潜力,一些提出的引爆因素可能不会表现出引爆行为,而是对强迫的大小做出更可预测和直接的反应。然而,不确定性仍然与许多引爆因素有关,突出了进一步研究和建模以更好地约束风险的迫切需要。
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Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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