Assessment of mathematical models for estimating the incubation period of Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici

The aim of the study was to compare the results of computer simulations carried out using two mathematical models developed for estimating the length of the incubation period of Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici, the perpetrator of the leaf rust in wheat. Both models were developed using the exponential function based on the results of experiments carried out in 2013–2015. Model 1 determines the length of the incubation period based on average daily air temperatures, while model 2 based on temperature values recorded in an hourly interval. The reliability of the models was assessed by comparing the simulation results with the actual dates of onset of disease symptoms on plants inoculated in the experiments carried out in 2016–2018. The results of computer simulations using the developed models were similar with the actual dates of onset of disease symptoms. Slightly better results were obtained for the model determining the length of the incubation period based on the value of temperature recorded in the hourly interval.